天盟黄金：黄金重回4000美元，是回光返照还是暴涨前奏？

Group 1 - The global market has entered a volatile phase, with US stock index futures declining and spot gold rising above $4000 per ounce, reflecting a shift towards defensive assets as risk appetite diminishes [1][4] - Recent positive data from the US ISM services index and ADP employment figures initially boosted investor confidence in an economic "soft landing," but concerns over high valuations in the tech sector have resurfaced, leading to a cautious market sentiment [3] - The return of risk-averse capital has made gold a focal point, with its price driven by safe-haven buying and asset allocation needs, indicating a potential structural adjustment in the market [4][8] Group 2 - The recent rise in gold prices above $4000 is attributed to a decrease in the 10-year US Treasury yield and a slight dip in the US dollar index, signaling a flow of funds into safe-haven assets [4] - The upcoming changes in domestic gold taxation and the clarification of "investment" versus "non-investment" uses are expected to enhance market liquidity and shift the industry structure towards a focus on gold recycling [5][6] - The gold recovery market is anticipated to become a crucial link between the financial and physical gold sectors, potentially influencing future price volatility [6]