数据真空期下，民间数据与市场评论勾勒出美国就业市场的何种脉络？

Core Insights - The job market in the U.S. shows signs of weakness, with a decline in job postings and mixed employment data indicating a cooling labor market [1][1][1] Employment Data - The number of job postings on Indeed has dropped to the lowest level since 2021 [1] - The ADP employment report for October shows an increase of 42,000 jobs, marking the largest gain since July 2025 and exceeding market expectations [1] - Revelio Labs estimates a reduction of 9,100 jobs in October, primarily due to layoffs in government sectors [1] - Challenger's report indicates that the number of layoffs in October reached 153,074, a year-on-year increase of 175%, the largest in seven months; year-to-date layoffs are up 65% [1] Market Commentary - UBS Group notes that ADP and Challenger data suggest a persistently weak labor market [1] - TS Lombard indicates that recent data does not show further deterioration in the employment market [1] - Inflation Insights highlights that despite net job growth reported by ADP, the increase remains weak, reflecting a struggling labor market [1] - Oxford Economics states that ADP data lacks national representativeness and should complement, not replace, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment surveys [1] - Bank of America observes that while the U.S. job market continues to slow, there has not been a substantial change compared to the already turbulent September [1] - EY emphasizes that either due to weak hiring demand or the emergence of new technologies like AI, business leaders perceive a reduced need for talent, which will be a future reality [1] Federal Reserve Officials' Remarks - Federal Reserve Governor Barr emphasizes the need to ensure a robust job market [1] - Fed official Hamak acknowledges the cooling job market but notes that recent data remains healthy [1] - Fed official Mousalem mentions a slowdown in the job market, yet it remains close to full employment [1] - Fed Governor Milan describes the ADP data as a pleasant surprise, suggesting that pre-government shutdown employment trends persist [1] - Fed official Goolsbee points out that the Chicago Fed's new biweekly unemployment rate estimate indicates a potential rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% in October, with most labor market indicators showing that the job market remains relatively stable [1]