DeepSeek陈德里：AI变革短期机遇多，但长期可能风险更大

Core Viewpoint - The discussion at the 2025 World Internet Conference highlights the dual nature of AI development, presenting both short-term opportunities and long-term risks [1][2]. Group 1: Short-term Perspective (3-5 years) - In the short term, AI is expected to enhance human capabilities, allowing for the resolution of more complex problems and the creation of greater value [1]. - This period is characterized as a "honeymoon phase" where AI cannot independently realize its value [1]. Group 2: Mid-term Perspective (5-10 years) - In the mid-term, AI is anticipated to start replacing certain human jobs, leading to increased risks of unemployment [1]. - Technology companies are urged to act as whistleblowers, informing the public about which jobs are irreplaceable and the skills needed for the future [1]. Group 3: Long-term Perspective (10-20 years) - Over the long term, AI may pose significant dangers by potentially replacing a large number of jobs, challenging the existing social order [2]. - Technology companies are expected to play a role in safeguarding human safety and participating in the restructuring of social order [2]. - The current AI revolution is noted to differ significantly from past industrial revolutions, as it may have a more profound impact on human institutions and roles [2].