小摩:核心偿付能力比率下降或影响内险股股息 偏好中国人寿及中国平安
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-07 09:13

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that several domestic insurance companies experienced a quarterly decline in core solvency ratios, averaging a drop of 9 percentage points, primarily due to the rebound in mainland bond yields negatively impacting solvency [1] Group 1: Insurance Companies' Performance - Major life insurance companies saw a quarterly decrease in core solvency ratios by 16 percentage points, while non-life insurance companies experienced a 3 percentage point increase [1] - Despite strong profit growth in the first three quarters, the volatility in solvency capital may offset year-end dividend forecasts, particularly for small and medium-sized life insurance companies [1] Group 2: Company Preferences - Morgan Stanley favors China Life (601628) due to its strong profitability and conservative capital management [1] - The firm also prefers Ping An (601318) based on its leading forecasted dividend yield of 6% for the next year compared to peers [1] Group 3: Management Responses - Insurance management teams have implemented several measures in response to the challenges, including issuing perpetual bonds, reducing equity risk exposure, and broadly decreasing non-standard asset balances [1]