铝市观察：价格高歌猛进，难奈全球供需博弈

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing unprecedented enthusiasm, with LME three-month aluminum prices surpassing $2,900 per ton, marking the highest level since May 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Record inflows into LME aluminum contracts have pushed this light metal to the forefront of the commodities market, with net long positions exceeding 130,000 lots, the highest since early 2022 [2] - The aluminum market is witnessing a significant influx of funds, with a single-day increase of over 50,000 lots in total holdings on November 3, indicating a dramatic rise in investor confidence [4] - The market narrative has shifted from neutral to bullish within six months, with net long positions increasing while short positions have decreased significantly [6] Group 2: Supply and Demand Balance - The global electrolytic aluminum market is precariously balanced, with future supply and demand expected to remain tight, hinging on China's production capacity and overseas capacity releases [8] - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is projected to reach 44.45 million tons by September 2025, with a utilization rate exceeding 101.2%, indicating overproduction [8] - Supply vulnerabilities have been highlighted by recent events, such as Century Aluminum's production halt due to equipment failure, raising concerns about global aluminum supply [10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The aluminum market has entered a new pricing paradigm, where high prices and profits are constrained by supply issues, leading to a scenario where prices are likely to rise further [12] - Projections indicate a supply gap of 344,000 tons in 2027, which could drive prices higher [12] - The aluminum industry is expected to see profit increases, with forecasts for domestic aluminum prices reaching 21,500, 22,000, and 22,500 yuan per ton from 2026 to 2028 [12][14] Group 4: Structural Changes and Competition - The aluminum industry is transitioning to a phase characterized by weak supply, high profits, and low capital expenditure [14] - Future competition will extend beyond price to include low-carbon technologies, supply chain resilience, and resource sustainability [17] - The aluminum market is influenced by geopolitical factors and energy transitions, positioning aluminum as a strategic material for a green future [16]