风口智库｜央行已连续12个月增持！金价还得涨？

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased its gold reserves to 74.09 million ounces as of the end of October, marking a 30,000-ounce increase from September, continuing a trend of gold accumulation for 12 consecutive months since November of last year [2] - The increase in gold reserves comes amid rising international gold prices, driven by geopolitical risks and U.S. monetary policy pressures, although the scale of accumulation in October was the lowest since the resumption of purchases in November 2024 [2] - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's continued gold purchases signal a shift in the global political and economic landscape, with a growing need to optimize international reserve structures and reduce reliance on U.S. Treasury bonds [5] Group 1: PBOC Gold Reserves - As of October, China's gold reserves reached 74.09 million ounces, up from 74.06 million ounces in September [2] - The PBOC has been increasing its gold reserves for 12 months, having paused purchases for 18 months prior to November 2022 [2] - The scale of gold accumulation in October was the lowest since the resumption of purchases, indicating a cautious approach amid rising gold prices [2] Group 2: Global Gold Market Trends - The World Gold Council reported that global gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $8.2 billion in October, increasing total assets under management to a record $503 billion [4] - Daily trading volume in the gold market reached an all-time high of $561 billion in October, reflecting a 45% increase month-over-month [4] - Analysts predict that international gold prices could rise above $4,500 per ounce next year, supported by ongoing economic uncertainties and U.S. fiscal risks [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - The PBOC's gold accumulation strategy is expected to continue, driven by the need to enhance the credibility of the sovereign currency and support the internationalization of the renminbi [5] - The ongoing U.S. fiscal risks and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are likely to maintain upward pressure on gold prices [7] - Central banks globally are expected to strengthen their gold reserves as a strategic asset allocation response to economic uncertainties [7]