全球央行“换仓”：黄金归位，美元退潮

Core Insights - The global central bank reserve allocation is shifting, with gold's share in "foreign exchange + gold" reserves expected to rise from 24% in June 2023 to 30% by October 2025, while the dollar's share is projected to decline from 43% to 40% [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Demand and Central Bank Purchases - Central banks have purchased a record 634 tons of gold in 2023, with a quarterly purchase of 220 tons in Q3, marking a 28% increase from the previous quarter [4]. - The World Gold Council reports that global gold demand reached 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, the highest quarterly figure on record, driven by strong investment demand and central bank purchases [4]. - Emerging markets are leading the gold buying trend, with Poland's central bank purchasing 67 tons and Turkey's central bank increasing its gold reserves from 540.19 tons to 634.76 tons [4]. Group 2: Dollar Reserve Share Decline - The dollar's share in global "foreign exchange + gold" reserves has decreased from 43% to 40% between June and mid-October 2023, with the IMF noting a drop in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves to 56.32% [8]. - Factors contributing to the dollar's decline include exchange rate fluctuations, with the dollar depreciating 10.6% against the euro in the first half of 2023, the largest drop since 1973 [8]. - Despite the decline, the dollar remains the dominant global reserve currency, but its status is being challenged by structural issues such as rising U.S. debt and fiscal deficits [9]. Group 3: Future Projections for Gold Prices - Deutsche Bank predicts that if gold prices reach $5,790 per ounce, the reserve share of gold and the dollar will equalize at 36% each, indicating a significant shift in the global reserve landscape [10]. - Achieving this price level would require a nearly 45% increase from current levels, with various geopolitical and economic factors influencing this potential outcome [12]. - The transition to a more diversified reserve system could enhance gold's role in international payments and finance, fundamentally altering the current monetary and payment systems [11].