泡沫还是繁荣？揭秘美股“AI神话”真相

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential bursting of the AI bubble in the U.S. stock market, highlighting the growing consensus on the risks associated with AI investments and the uncertainty surrounding the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Recent global market fluctuations, including a significant drop in U.S. stock indices, are attributed to concerns over the sustainability of the AI narrative [1]. - A survey indicates that 95% of companies using generative AI in the U.S. have not achieved profitability from the technology, raising questions about the long-term viability of AI investments [2]. - AI-related spending in the U.S. is reported to contribute more to GDP growth than all consumer spending combined, with projections suggesting that 92% of GDP growth in the first half of 2025 could stem from AI investments [2]. Group 2: Financial Implications - OpenAI, valued at nearly $1 trillion, reported a net loss of $13.5 billion in the first half of the year, reflecting the financial strain on leading AI companies [2]. - The current AI bubble is compared to Japan's economic bubble, where companies inflated asset values through mutual investments and high valuations, suggesting a similar pattern in the U.S. AI sector [3]. - The proliferation of data centers in the U.S. and the bundling of long-term leases into bonds are likened to the mortgage-backed securities that contributed to the subprime crisis, indicating potential hidden leverage risks [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The U.S. approach to AI focuses on the uncertain future of AGI, while China adopts a more pragmatic, application-driven strategy in sectors like autonomous driving and biopharmaceuticals, leading to healthier business ecosystems [4]. - Investment firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are warning of potential corrections in U.S. tech stocks while expressing optimism about Chinese markets in AI and electric vehicles, signaling a shift in capital preferences [4].