Group 1 - Recent positive signals in US-China relations, including the suspension of sanctions on China's shipbuilding industry and public consultations on delaying tariffs, have boosted investor risk appetite [1] - The Dow Jones futures rose approximately 0.20%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.25% and 0.33% respectively, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [1] - October's employment data showed a significant increase in layoffs, with over 153,000 job cuts reported, marking the largest monthly increase in over 20 years, which has strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 67% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, up from 60% a week prior, supporting stock market risk appetite and maintaining high gold prices [1] - Despite the recovery in market sentiment, safe-haven funds remain resilient due to ongoing government shutdown risks, with independent estimates suggesting a potential 1% to 2% reduction in Q4 GDP if the shutdown continues [1] - The US Supreme Court's hearings on presidential tariff powers have added policy uncertainty, sustaining market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 3 - Gold prices have returned above $4,000 but remain below overnight highs, with short-term volatility driven by dollar buying and interest rate cut expectations [2] - Technical analysis suggests that if gold prices break through the $4,020–$4,030 resistance range, they may further test $4,045–$4,050 and potentially $4,100; conversely, a drop below $3,975–$3,965 could see prices retreat to around $3,929 [2] - The market is characterized by a coexistence of policy expectations and safe-haven demand, with gold stability above $4,000 dependent on upcoming data confirming rate cut prospects and dollar performance [2]
【UNforex财经事件】中美关系改善与降息预期交织 黄金延续高位震荡
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-07 10:41