智飞生物遭遇“最差三季报”代理模式失灵与自研乏力双重承压

Core Insights - The company reported its worst quarterly results in a decade, with revenue of 7.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12.06%, and a net loss of 6.653 billion yuan, a staggering year-on-year drop of 156.1% [1] Group 1: Decline in HPV Vaccine Business - The company, as the exclusive agent for Merck's HPV vaccine in China, saw its revenue soar from 446 million yuan in 2016 to 52.918 billion yuan in 2023, but this growth has ended due to increased production capacity and market saturation [2] - The Chinese government is promoting the inclusion of HPV vaccines in immunization programs, offering free vaccinations for eligible girls, which further squeezes the market for high-priced self-paid HPV vaccines [2] - In the first half of 2025, the batch issuance volume of the nine-valent HPV vaccine that the company represents fell by 76.8% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Struggles with Self-Developed Products - The company is attempting to transition to an innovative enterprise, but its self-developed products lack competitiveness, with the 23-valent pneumonia vaccine having zero batch issuance in the first half of this year [2] - The newly approved quadrivalent influenza vaccine quickly became embroiled in a price war, with competitors significantly lowering their bid prices [2] - Although several vaccines are in the review or clinical trial stages, these pipelines are not expected to contribute to near-term performance [2] Group 3: Difficulties in Transformation and Financial Risks - To accelerate its transformation, the company invested 593 million yuan to acquire a controlling stake in Chen'an Bio, entering the GLP-1 drug market, which is already highly competitive in China [2] - As of July 2025, there are 21 GLP-1 drugs either on the market or in late-stage development in China [2] - The company faces high accounts receivable and inventory levels, amounting to 12.814 billion yuan and 20.246 billion yuan respectively, which together account for over 70% of total assets, posing significant financial risks if not managed effectively [2] Conclusion - The company's challenges reflect the broader struggle of Chinese vaccine companies transitioning from channel-driven to innovation-driven models, emphasizing the need for rapid commercialization of self-developed products and optimization of asset structures to recover from losses [3]