编辑 | 丁萍 出品 | 妙投APP 头图 | 视觉中国 作者 | 张贝贝 国内疫苗龙头智飞生物，在近期7个交易日累计跌幅超15%，是因为它交出了上市以来最差的业绩预 报（2026/1/13-2026/1/21）。 2026年1月12日晚间，智飞生物披露业绩预告，公司预计2025年归母净利润-106.98亿元至-137.26亿 元，同比下降630%至780%；扣非净利润-105.54亿元至-135.41亿元，同比下降630%至780%。 这是公司上市以来首年亏损。 公司在公告中提到，核心产品销售不及预期，业绩同比承压。 拆分智飞收入结构，可看到9成以上是代理产品贡献的，2023-2024年代理产品收入占比分别高达 98.05%和94.61%，公司的自主产品营收可忽略不计。 而公司的代理收入主要来自HPV疫苗。 这意味着，HPV疫苗的销售前景如何，将对智飞2026年的业绩起着决定性的作用。 对于此结果，公司在公告中表示歉意，并表明2026年将会全力以赴推动经营改善，力争更多自主产 品上市。 关键是能实现吗？ （资料 来源：Choice数据） 妙投先来探讨下智飞生物2025年业绩为何如此难看。 # 01 代理模式 ...

华夏时报记者 王瑜 于娜 北京报道 来源：@华夏时报微博 "接种量下滑主要受民众对带状疱疹疾病认知不足、自费接种意愿下降、疫苗犹豫情绪蔓延等多重因素影响。"百 克生物董秘在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时解释道。为扭转颓势，百克生物在2025年末启动大幅调价，将带状疱 疹疫苗单支价格从上市初期的1369元降至464元，降幅接近70%。事实上，在此之前该产品已在终端市场开展试探 性打折促销，此次调价相当于将终端优惠常态化。百克生物董秘办表示，调价旨在降低民众接种成本，提升产品 可及性与渗透率，进而激发潜在市场需求。 "宁愿吃药也不愿接种疫苗"，这种疫苗犹豫情绪正从成人疫苗向儿童疫苗蔓延，从带状疱疹、HPV等热门品类向 全品类渗透，疫苗接种意愿跌至历史低位。这一行业困境，最终折射到了企业业绩层面。 核心产品受挫的同时，传统主力产品的下滑进一步加剧了业绩压力。受新生儿出生率十年减半的持续影响，儿童 疫苗市场整体萎缩，百克生物核心儿童疫苗产品水痘减毒活疫苗销量同比下滑。此外，存货减值、参股公司投资 损失等非经常性因素，进一步扩大了公司的亏损幅度。 2026年1月17日，国产带状疱疹疫苗龙头企业长春百克生物科技股份公司（SH ...

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 张贝贝 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | 视觉中国 国内疫苗龙头智飞生物，在近期7个交易日累计跌幅超15%，是因为它交出了上市以来最差的业绩预报（2026/1/13-2026/1/21）。 2026年1月12日晚间，智飞生物披露业绩预告，公司预计2025年归母净利润-106.98亿元至-137.26亿元，同比下降630%至780%；扣非净利润-105.54亿元 至-135.41亿元，同比下降630%至780%。 这是公司上市以来首年亏损。 对于此结果，公司在公告中表示歉意，并表明2026年将会全力以赴推动经营改善，力争更多自主产品上市。 关键是能实现吗？ 公司在公告中提到，核心产品销售不及预期，业绩同比承压。 拆分智飞收入结构，可看到9成以上是代理产品贡献的，2023-2024年代理产品收入占比分别高达98.05%和94.61%，公司的自主产品营收可忽略不计。 而公司的代理收入主要来自HPV疫苗。 这意味着，HPV疫苗的销售前景如何，将对智飞2026年的业绩起着决定性的作用。 妙投分析下来，并不乐观。 （资料来源：Choice数据） 妙投先来探讨下智飞生物2025年业绩为何如此难看。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Zhifei Biological, once a leader in the vaccine industry, is facing significant financial challenges, with a projected loss exceeding 100 billion yuan for 2025, marking a drastic decline from previous profitability [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Zhifei Biological's market capitalization is currently 40.91 billion yuan, with the actual controller Jiang Rensheng's wealth dropping below 20 billion yuan from a peak of 140 billion yuan, resulting in a loss of over 100 billion yuan [2]. - The company expects a net profit loss for 2025 in the range of 10.698 billion to 13.726 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 630% to 780% [3]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 26.07 billion yuan, a 50.74% decline year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.018 billion yuan, down 74.99% [4]. Business Model and Challenges - Zhifei Biological's rise was largely due to its role as an agent for Merck's vaccines, with revenue growing from 6.29 billion yuan in 2011 to 306.52 billion yuan in 2021, a nearly 48-fold increase [8]. - The company has faced challenges due to a decline in public vaccination willingness and market demand, leading to significant inventory buildup and financial strain [5][11]. - As of September 2025, the company had over 14 billion yuan in interest-bearing debt and less than 2.5 billion yuan in cash, prompting a loan application of up to 10.2 billion yuan to manage its finances [2][13]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of domestic HPV vaccines has drastically changed the market landscape, leading to a significant drop in sales of Zhifei's Merck HPV vaccine, which is now struggling to sell despite contractual obligations to purchase [11][12]. - The company's inventory reached 22.218 billion yuan by the end of 2024, more than double the previous year's figure, indicating severe overstock issues [12]. Future Outlook - To navigate its current difficulties, Zhifei Biological needs to increase its investment in research and development to enhance its own product offerings and reduce reliance on external partnerships [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in the financial performance of Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd., likening its trajectory to the "Lotus Law," where success appears to be imminent but ultimately leads to a sharp downturn due to increased competition and market saturation [5][12]. Financial Performance - Zhifei Biological forecasts a net loss for 2025, shifting from a profit of 2 billion yuan in 2024 to a loss between 10.7 billion and 13.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 630% to 780% [5][6]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to drop by 50.74% to 26.07 billion yuan, with a net profit decrease of 74.99% to 2.02 billion yuan [12]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of domestic HPV vaccines, such as Wantai's "Xinkening," which is priced significantly lower than imported options, has intensified competition in the market [12][14]. - The Chinese government has initiated free HPV vaccination programs, further increasing competition and reducing market share for Zhifei Biological [14]. Historical Context - Zhifei Biological experienced rapid revenue growth from 2016 to 2023, with total revenue increasing from 446 million yuan to 52.918 billion yuan, a growth of 118 times [10]. - The company had exclusive rights to distribute Merck's HPV vaccines, leading to substantial revenue increases in 2017 and 2018, with growth rates of 201.06% and 289.43%, respectively [7][8]. Future Outlook - The company faces challenges due to high inventory levels and ongoing large-scale procurement agreements, which may exacerbate financial strain [13]. - The market for HPV vaccines is expected to become increasingly competitive, with more players entering the space and potentially diminishing Zhifei Biological's market share [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Biotech Economy Index (970038) experienced a slight decline of 0.15%, closing at 2257.43 points on January 19, with a total trading volume of 28.494 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.21% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - On the same day, 23 constituent stocks of the Biotech Economy Index saw an increase, with Deep Technology leading the gainers at a rise of 5.2% [1] - Conversely, 25 stocks declined, with Zhifei Biological leading the losses at a drop of 7.19% [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Biotech Economy Index constituents totaled 0.792 billion yuan, while the net inflow from speculative funds was 0.216 billion yuan [2] - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 0.576 billion yuan to the index constituents [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe financial downturn of Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd., predicting a loss of between 10.698 billion to 13.726 billion yuan in 2025, marking a year-on-year decline of 630% to 780% [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, Zhifei's revenue from agency products is expected to drop by 75.16% to 4.37 billion yuan, following a 94.61% reliance on agency products in 2024 [11][13]. - The company's total revenue has seen a dramatic increase from 10.6 billion yuan in 2019 to 52.9 billion yuan in 2023, but this growth has been unsustainable due to market changes [8][10]. - As of mid-2025, Zhifei's inventory reached 21.014 billion yuan, accounting for 45.75% of total assets, indicating severe inventory pressure [19][21]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for HPV vaccines in China has plateaued, with vaccination coverage rising from less than 1% in 2018 to 28% in 2025, leading to increased competition [14]. - Domestic alternatives to imported HPV vaccines have emerged, with companies like Wantai Biological Pharmacy launching competitive products at significantly lower prices [15]. - The introduction of free HPV vaccinations under the national immunization program further constrains the market for self-paid vaccines [14]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - Zhifei faces substantial inventory and receivables issues, with accounts receivable reaching 13.518 billion yuan, representing 29.43% of total assets, and a significant portion of these being overdue [22][24]. - The company has begun to recognize inventory impairment losses, with a provision of 70.19 million yuan noted for the first half of 2025, indicating ongoing financial strain [21][25]. Group 4: Strategic Transition - In response to declining agency revenues, Zhifei is accelerating its shift towards self-research and development, with several products making progress in clinical trials [26][28]. - Despite advancements, self-developed products contributed less than 5 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, highlighting the challenges in transitioning from an agency model to innovation [30][31]. - The company’s R&D investment of 1.4 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for only 5.3% of revenue, is considered insufficient compared to industry standards [32]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article concludes that Zhifei is at a critical juncture, needing to evolve from a "super agent" to an "innovative vaccine company" to survive, with the path to recovery being fraught with challenges [33][34].

Core Insights - The HPV vaccine sales slump is leading to significant financial losses for companies in the sector, particularly for Zhifei Biological, which anticipates a net loss of 10.698 billion to 13.726 billion yuan in 2025 [1][2] - The HPV vaccine market is experiencing a shift from a blue ocean to a red ocean, with increased competition from domestic vaccine manufacturers reducing the first-mover advantage previously held by Zhifei Biological [2] Company-Specific Insights - Zhifei Biological's major products, the four-valent and nine-valent HPV vaccines, have seen sales underperform due to declining public willingness to get vaccinated and increased vaccine hesitancy [2] - The company has reported its first loss since it began selling HPV vaccines in 2017, following years of profitability that peaked at over 10 billion yuan in 2021 [1] - The stock price of Zhifei Biological has significantly decreased from a peak of 152.06 yuan per share in June 2021 to 17.56 yuan per share currently [5] Industry Insights - The number of HPV vaccines available in China has reached seven, with price competition intensifying as public procurement prices for some vaccines have dropped to 27.5 yuan per dose [2] - Companies involved in HPV vaccine research, such as Kangla Weishi, are facing funding challenges that have led to the suspension of clinical trials for their HPV vaccines [3][4] - The overall market for HPV vaccines is experiencing a slowdown in growth due to factors such as reduced demand for vaccinations and increased competition, making it harder for companies to attract investment [5]

Group 1 - The stock price of Zhifei Biological (300122.SZ) decreased by 7.19%, closing at 17.56 yuan [1] - Zhifei Biological's stock reached an all-time high of 231.19 yuan on May 17, 2021 [2] - Research analyst He Wei from Dongfang Caifu Securities maintained a "buy" rating for Zhifei Biological in a report dated April 29, 2021, highlighting the dual-driven growth from self-developed and agency products [2]

Market Overview - The biopharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 0.28% on January 19, with Zhifei Biological leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up 0.09% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the biopharmaceutical sector included: - Wanzhe Co., Ltd. (Code: 000534) with a closing price of 25.14, up 10.02% and a trading volume of 266,100 shares, totaling 646 million yuan [1] - Olin Biological (Code: 6168889) closed at 27.03, up 9.21% with a trading volume of 155,500 shares, totaling 423 million yuan [1] - Conversely, Zhifei Biological (Code: 300122) saw a significant decline, closing at 17.56, down 7.19% with a trading volume of 618,600 shares, totaling 1.102 billion yuan [2] Capital Flow - The biopharmaceutical sector experienced a net outflow of 436 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 189 million yuan [2] - The top stocks by net inflow from institutional investors included: - Wanzhe Co., Ltd. with a net inflow of 57.34 million yuan, accounting for 8.88% of the total [3] - Kanghong Pharmaceutical (Code: 002773) with a net inflow of 49.52 million yuan, accounting for 11.48% [3]