金蝶国际:订阅ARR增长稳健

Core Viewpoint - Kingdee International is expected to achieve a revenue of 6.667 to 7.215 billion yuan for the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.6% to 15.3%, and a net profit forecast of 0.28 to 2.01 billion yuan, indicating a significant increase of 119.7% to 241.8% [1][3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecasted revenue range is 6.667 to 7.215 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% to 15.3% [1][3] - The predicted net profit is between 0.28 and 2.01 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 119.7% to 241.8% [1][3] - Adjusted net profit is expected to be between 0.28 and 1.57 billion yuan [1][3] Subscription and Market Performance - Kingdee's subscription ARR reached 3.86 billion yuan, with a net addition of 130 million yuan, indicating stable incremental growth [5][6] - The NDR performance for various products is as follows: Cangqiong & Xinghan at 105%, Xingkong at 95%, Xingchen at 93%, and Jingdouyun at 88%, showing stable performance [5][6] - The company is expanding internationally, having signed a cooperation agreement with Malaysia's revitalization group, which is expected to increase overseas revenue contribution to 5% to 10% [5][6] Market Position and Growth - Kingdee maintains a leading position in the low-code and no-code software market, with a market share of 15.7%, ranking first in China for five consecutive years [5][6] - The market size for low-code solutions is projected to grow by 20.2% year-on-year in the second half of 2024, potentially exceeding 12.98 billion yuan by 2029 [5][6] - In the first half of 2025, Kingdee achieved a revenue of 3.192 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.24%, with a significant reduction in net loss by approximately 55.1% [5][6]