Investment Logic - The company is a leader in domestic enterprise service SaaS, having launched the first Windows-based financial management software in 1995 and transitioning to cloud services in 2007. By 2024, cloud service revenue is expected to account for 81.6% of total revenue [1] - From a total perspective, the company's cloud transformation has resulted in stronger revenue growth resilience, maintaining positive growth from 2016 to 2024, higher employee efficiency with a CAGR of 10% from 2020 to 2024, lower expense ratios with improvements of 2.45pp and 5.10pp in sales and R&D expense ratios respectively from 2020 to 2024, and healthier cash flow returning to historical highs in 2024 [1] - From a structural perspective, in 2024, the revenue from the "Cang Qiong" and "Xing Han" products is expected to be approximately 1.3 billion yuan, accounting for 20.8% of total revenue, with a net dollar retention rate (NDR) of 108% maintained for five consecutive quarters. The demand side is driven by ERP system replacements mandated by policies for central and state-owned enterprises by the end of 2025/2027 [1] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from the "Xing Kong" product is projected to be approximately 2.15 billion yuan, accounting for 34.3% of total revenue, with an NDR of over 94% [2] - The "Xing Chen" product, aimed at small and micro enterprises, is expected to generate approximately 1.23 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, accounting for 19.6% of total revenue, with an NDR improvement to 93% [2] - The company has covered 435,000 small and micro enterprises with its integrated financial, tax, and business solutions, addressing common issues faced by these enterprises in their digital transformation [2] AI and Future Outlook - Since 2017, the company has been investing in AI, launching the "Jin Die Cloud·Cang Qiong GPT" large model platform in 2023, and has developed agent capabilities across seven major scenarios including finance, human resources, and marketing [2] - The company forecasts revenues of 7.01 billion, 8.05 billion, and 9.38 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 80 million, 490 million, and 1.07 billion yuan for the same years [2] - A target price of 16.98 HKD per share is set based on an 8x PS valuation for 2025, with an initial "buy" rating assigned [2]

Summary of Kintone International Conference Call Company Overview - Kintone International has successfully transformed into a cloud service provider, with cloud service revenue accounting for 81.6% of total revenue by 2024, establishing itself as a leading ERP giant in the domestic SaaS market [2][12][16] - The company offers core products including Xinghan, Cangqiong, Xingkong, and Xingchen, catering to large, medium, and small enterprises with comprehensive management solutions [2][13] Key Insights and Arguments - **Cloud Transformation Impact**: The shift to cloud services has enhanced revenue resilience, improved employee efficiency, and strengthened cash flow health, with operating profit margin for cloud services reaching 6% in 2024 [2][12][19] - **AI Technology Influence**: AI technology is expected to significantly impact Kintone's business model, with anticipated revenue growth of 10-15% in 2025, projecting total revenue of approximately 7 billion RMB [2][14][27] - **Profitability Forecast**: Kintone expects to turn a profit in 2025, estimating a profit of around 80 million RMB, with a current PS valuation of about 6 times, potentially reaching 8 times in the long term, corresponding to a market value target of 56 billion RMB [2][15][26] - **Market Share Gains**: The company benefits from the "Xinchuang" policy, which drives rapid growth for its Xinghan and Cangqiong platforms by capturing market share from SAP and Oracle, with revenue growth from under 100 million RMB in 2019 to 1.3 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of approximately 40% [2][23] Additional Important Content - **AI Agent Commercialization**: Kintone is poised for large-scale commercialization of AI agents in 2025, leveraging its extensive customer base and data accumulation to enhance its SaaS offerings [5][7][27] - **Product Development**: Recently, Kintone launched five AI agents, including Travel Agent and Financial Report Analysis Agent, which integrate into the ERP financial system, creating a closed-loop management system [9][10] - **Client Segmentation**: Kintone's products are tailored to different client segments, with varying deployment times and customization needs, reflecting the diverse requirements of small, medium, and large enterprises [20][21][22] - **Financial Resilience**: Kintone has demonstrated strong revenue growth resilience, maintaining positive growth even during economic fluctuations and external shocks, with no negative growth recorded in the past 8-9 years [17][18] Conclusion Kintone International's strategic focus on cloud transformation and AI integration positions it well for future growth, with a robust product offering and a clear path to profitability. The company's ability to adapt to market demands and leverage policy changes further enhances its competitive edge in the ERP SaaS landscape.

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 16.98 per share based on an 8x PS valuation for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading SaaS provider in the domestic enterprise service sector, with a significant shift towards cloud services, which are expected to account for 81.6% of revenue by 2024 [8][10]. - The transition to cloud services has enhanced revenue growth resilience, with consistent positive growth from 2016 to 2024, and improved operational efficiency reflected in a 10% CAGR in revenue per employee from 2020 to 2024 [8][29][31]. - The company has developed three core product solutions targeting different customer segments: Xinghan & Cangqiong for large enterprises, Xingkong for medium enterprises, and Xingchen for small businesses, with high renewal rates indicating strong customer retention [8][10][25]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 70.1 billion, RMB 80.5 billion, and RMB 93.8 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits turning positive by 2025 [3]. Financial Forecasts, Valuation, and Rating - The projected revenue growth rates are 16.71% for 2023, 10.15% for 2024, and 11.99% for 2025, with net profit growth rates expected to be 46.07% in 2024 and 156.06% in 2025 [7][3]. Company Overview - The company has transitioned from traditional ERP software to a cloud-native EBC model, enhancing its service offerings and operational capabilities [14][19]. - The cloud transformation has led to a significant increase in contract liabilities and a decrease in accounts receivable, indicating improved cash flow management [41][42]. Growth Drivers - The demand for digital transformation among small and medium enterprises is driving the adoption of the company's SaaS solutions, with a potential market space of approximately RMB 70 billion for the Xingkong product line [10][25]. - The company has established a strong foothold in the domestic market, with over 2,110 clients for its cloud-native EBC solutions, reflecting its competitive advantage in the industry [8][10]. AI and SaaS Integration - The company has been integrating AI capabilities into its SaaS offerings, enhancing operational efficiency and creating new revenue-sharing opportunities through its Agent model [8][10][42].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 16.98 per share based on an 8x PS valuation for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading SaaS provider in the domestic enterprise service sector, with a significant shift towards cloud services, which are expected to account for 81.6% of revenue by 2024 [8][10]. - The transition to cloud services has enhanced revenue growth resilience, operational efficiency, and cash flow health, with the operating profit margin (OPM) for cloud services turning positive in 2023 and projected to reach 6% in 2024 [42]. - The company has developed three core product solutions targeting large, medium, and small enterprises, which are expected to drive substantial revenue growth in the coming years [8][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The company is forecasted to achieve revenues of RMB 70.1 billion, RMB 80.5 billion, and RMB 93.8 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits turning positive by 2025 [3]. Financial Forecasts, Valuation, and Rating - The projected revenue growth rates for the company from 2023 to 2027 are 16.71%, 10.15%, 11.99%, 14.96%, and 16.42% respectively, with net profit growth rates showing significant improvement, particularly in 2025 with a forecasted growth of 156.06% [7]. - The company’s diluted earnings per share are expected to improve from -0.06 in 2023 to 0.30 in 2027 [7]. Company Overview - The company has transitioned from traditional ERP software to a cloud-native EBC model, enhancing its service offerings and operational capabilities [14][19]. - The company’s cloud transformation has been marked by a significant increase in annual recurring revenue (ARR), which is projected to grow by 20% to RMB 34.3 billion in 2024 [31]. Growth Drivers - The company’s core products, including the "Cangyun" and "Xinghan" solutions, have achieved high net dollar retention rates of 108% and 94% respectively, indicating strong customer loyalty and demand [8][10]. - The demand for digital transformation among small and medium enterprises is expected to create a market space of approximately RMB 70 billion for the company’s services [10]. AI and SaaS Integration - The company has integrated AI capabilities into its SaaS offerings, enhancing service delivery and operational efficiency, with the launch of the "Jindie Cloud Cangyun GPT" platform [8][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rapid development and commercialization of AI agents by Kingdee International, including the launch of five AI agents and the establishment of the "Enterprise Management AI Ecosystem Alliance" [1][2] - The five AI agents include JinYao Financial Report (financial report analysis agent), ChatBI (enterprise inquiry agent), recruitment agent, travel agent, and enterprise knowledge agent, with a focus on making financial report analysis accessible to a wider audience [1][2] - The JinYao Financial Report agent aims to simplify financial report analysis for professional investors and business operators, claiming to enable users to generate high-quality financial analysis reports in just 10 minutes [1] Group 2 - The deployment of the five AI agents signifies their application across five vertical industries, with each agent operating through collaboration with multiple underlying AI agents [2] - Kingdee International's cloud platform allows users to access AI assistants for various tasks, enhancing efficiency and creativity by automating repetitive tasks and providing personalized information based on user preferences [2] - The CEO of Cloud Home predicts that the adoption rate of multiple AI agents in work scenarios will exceed 50% within the next three years, emphasizing the transformation of companies into intelligent organizations [3] Group 3 - Industry experts suggest that the development of AI and intelligent agents will drive changes in business models, shifting from functionality-based pricing to outcome-based pricing [4] - Kingdee International is transitioning from a Software as a Service (SaaS) model to a Results as a Service (RaaS) model, where services are charged based on the results achieved, as demonstrated by the travel agent charging per business trip itinerary [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains its profit forecast for Kingdee International (00268) and continues to rate it as outperforming the industry with a target price of HKD 17, based on a 40x 2025 P/OCF, corresponding to an 8x 2025 P/S ratio, indicating a 30% upside potential from its current trading level of 31x 2025 P/OCF or 6x 2025 P/S [1] Group 1 - The company is transitioning to a comprehensive enterprise management AI company, introducing the concept of "Enterprise Management AI" (EMAI) which integrates AI technology with management theories and practices to create a new generation of management platforms [2] - The management believes that this transformation will shift the company from delivering tools to delivering results, enhancing the value proposition of enterprise service providers and leading to a more outcome-oriented pricing model [2] - The company has developed the AI transformation methodology "AIGO," which includes Assessment & Architecture, Implementation, Governance, and Operation, aimed at accelerating the AI transformation process for enterprises [2] Group 2 - The company announced an upgrade of its enterprise-level PaaS platform, Kingdee Cloud Cangqiong, to a new generation AI platform, providing richer templates and tools, deeper SaaS connectivity, enhanced security, and more open technical standards [3] - This upgrade aims to lower the technical barriers for enterprises to apply AI and accelerate the development of intelligent agents [3] Group 3 - The company launched five intelligent agents, including JinYao Financial Report (financial report analysis agent), ChatBI (enterprise inquiry agent), recruitment agent, travel agent, and enterprise knowledge agent, all designed for immediate use [4] - The JinYao Financial Report agent targets professional investors, business operators, financial researchers, and individual investors, providing intelligent financial report interpretation and analysis report writing capabilities, marking an extension of the company's AI capabilities from B-end to C-end [4]

Financial Performance - Kingdee's revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, reached RMB 6,255,684, an increase of 10.1% from RMB 5,679,073 in 2023[17] - The company reported a loss attributable to owners of the Company of RMB (142,068) for 2024, an improvement from a loss of RMB (209,890) in 2023[17] - Basic losses per share decreased to RMB (4.01) in 2024 from RMB (6.07) in 2023, indicating a reduction in losses[17] - Loss for the year decreased to RMB (184,339) in 2024 from RMB (269,806) in 2023, representing a reduction of 31.6%[31] - Kingdee's cloud services revenue grew by 13.4% to RMB5,106,725,000, while revenue from the ERP business and others decreased by 2.1% to RMB1,148,959,000[81] - Gross profit increased to RMB4,070,672,000, reflecting an 11.7% year-on-year growth, with a gross profit margin of 65.1%[84] - The operating loss decreased to approximately RMB335,262,000, down 20.2% from RMB419,947,000 in 2023, with a significant reduction in the cloud services segment loss by 30.2%[90] - The loss attributable to owners of the Company was approximately RMB142,068,000, improving from a loss of RMB209,890,000 in 2023, resulting in a net loss margin of 2.3%[98] Cloud Services and Products - Kingdee has provided enterprise management cloud products and services to over 7.4 million enterprises, governments, and organizations globally[4] - Kingdee's major cloud service products include Kingdee Cloud Cosmic, Kingdee Cloud Constellation, Kingdee Cloud Galaxy, and Kingdee Cloud Stellar, catering to various enterprise sizes[4] - Kingdee Cloud revenue contribution rose to 81.6% in 2024, with cloud subscription ARR increasing by 20.0% year-on-year to RMB 3.43 billion[40] - In 2024, Kingdee's cloud services revenue grew by 13.4% year-on-year, accounting for approximately 81.6% of total revenue, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) reaching RMB3.43 billion, up 20.0% YoY[46][58] - Kingdee Cloud Cosmic and Constellation recorded RMB1,304 million in revenue, up 32.9% YoY, with a contract value of approximately RMB2.1 billion, representing a YoY increase of 51.9%[65] - Kingdee Cloud Galaxy recorded approximately RMB2,153 million in revenue, representing a 10.3% year-on-year increase, with a subscription ARR growth of 18.7% and a Net Dollar Retention rate of 95%[70] Strategic Initiatives and Market Position - The company aims to empower every enterprise to achieve phenomenal success, aligning with its mission to become the most trustworthy enterprise service platform[2] - Kingdee has maintained its leadership position in China's SaaS EA, SaaS ERM, Financial Cloud, EPM, and PLM markets for 20 consecutive years according to IDC reports[3] - Kingdee's inclusion in Gartner's Market Guide for AI Code Assistants highlights its technological capabilities in AI-driven solutions[3] - The company plans to pivot fully into an Enterprise Management AI company starting in 2025, leveraging its Cosmic AI platform[32] - Kingdee signed contracts with major companies including CNPC, AirChina, and SHEIN to redefine management practices in the AI era[36] - The company focuses on an "AI First, Subscription First, and Globalization" strategy to drive innovation and deepen its market presence[50][53] Operational Efficiency and Cash Flow - Kingdee's net cash generated from operating activities for 2024 is not specified but is a critical metric for assessing operational efficiency[24] - Operating cash flow grew by 42.9% to RMB 934 million in 2024, validating the effectiveness of the Subscription-First strategy[40] - Net cash flow from operating activities amounted to RMB933,530,000, compared to a net cash inflow of approximately RMB653,319,000 in 2023[49] Research and Development - Research and development expenses totaled RMB1,515,923,000, a 0.4% increase, with the R&D capitalization rate rising to 31.9%[89] - The total R&D costs recognized in the consolidated income statement amounted to RMB1,514,433,000, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.2%[89] Governance and Management - LIN Bo has been the Chief Financial Officer since 2016, with extensive experience in strategic planning and financial management[164] - The management team includes notable figures such as Dong Ming Zhu, who has received multiple awards for contributions to enterprise management and brand development[167] - The company has a diverse board with members holding significant academic and professional credentials in finance, management, and accounting[171][173][174] - The board's expertise spans across multiple sectors, enhancing the company's strategic decision-making capabilities[171][173][174] Sustainability and Social Responsibility - Kingdee was included in the Sustainability Yearbook (China Edition) 2024 by S&P Global, maintaining its position as the highest-scoring Chinese software company in the S&P Global ESG Score[154] - The Group launched 149 industry-academia collaborative education programs and 53 employment initiatives, partnering with 516 institutions to cultivate digital talents[155] - Over 400 corporate leaders participated in digital transformation training programs through the Kingdee Digital Academy in 2024[156]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating expected relative performance above the market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [5][9]. Core Insights - The company's revenue is projected to grow steadily, with estimates of 6.99 billion RMB for 2025, 7.93 billion RMB for 2026, and 9.16 billion RMB for 2027. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 0.09 billion RMB in 2025, 0.30 billion RMB in 2026, and 0.56 billion RMB in 2027 [5][9]. - The target price has been raised to 17.83 HKD, reflecting a dynamic price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 8.5x for 2025 [5][9]. - The company is experiencing stable performance with operating net cash flow growing significantly, projected at 0.93 billion RMB for 2024, an increase of 42.9% [5][9]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company's financial forecasts indicate a revenue of 6.26 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 10.2%. The net profit is projected to be -0.14 billion RMB, showing a 32.3% improvement [4][5]. - Cloud service revenue is expected to reach 5.11 billion RMB in 2024, accounting for 81.6% of total revenue, with a cloud subscription annual recurring revenue (ARR) of 3.43 billion RMB, reflecting a 20% increase [5][9]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of the company's cloud services, particularly the Kingdee Cloud Cangqiong and Xinghan, which achieved a combined revenue of 1.30 billion RMB in 2024, a 32.9% increase [5][9]. AI Integration and Product Development - The company is accelerating the integration of AI with its ERP systems, launching over 20 AI applications and signing contracts with nearly 20 large enterprises. This includes significant advancements in financial management and HR [5][9]. - The AI applications are expected to enhance customer transaction values, with over 7,500 small micro enterprises benefiting from AI-enabled products [5][9].

Core Insights - Kingdee International reported a recurring revenue of approximately RMB 3.56 billion for its cloud subscription services for the first quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of about 20% [1] - The net renewal rates for various Kingdee cloud products are as follows: Kingdee Cloud · Cangqiong & Xinghan at 108%, Kingdee Cloud · Xingkong at 94%, Kingdee Cloud · Xingchen at 92%, and Kingdee Jingdou Cloud at 88% [1] Financial Performance - The annual recurring revenue for Kingdee Cloud subscription services reached approximately RMB 3.56 billion [1] - The year-on-year growth rate for this revenue is approximately 20% [1] Product Performance - The net renewal rates for Kingdee's cloud products indicate strong customer retention, with rates of 108%, 94%, 92%, and 88% for different services [1]

Key Points Summary of Kingdee International Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kingdee International - **Industry**: Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) and Cloud Computing Core Insights and Arguments - **ERP Market Growth**: The ERP market is showing significant improvement in competitive landscape and management optimization, with strong growth expected throughout the year. ERP companies are projected to achieve net inflows in the billions, with valuations around 20 to 30 times sales, making them ideal for medium to long-term investments [3][4][6] - **Cloud Transformation Strategy**: Kingdee has firmly committed to a cloud transformation strategy since 2014, with cloud revenue now accounting for over 80% of total revenue. The company anticipates returning to profitability by 2025, with a projected operating cash flow of over 13 billion yuan [3][6][10] - **Product Structure and Innovation**: Kingdee has developed a comprehensive product structure covering large, medium, and small enterprises, demonstrating strategic resilience through industry cycles. The company has launched various platforms tailored to different customer sizes, enhancing its market reach [3][5][8][17] - **Financial Performance**: Kingdee's financial performance has improved since 2022, with operating cash flow reaching 9.3 billion yuan in 2024 and expected to exceed 13 billion yuan in 2025. The company has effectively controlled sales and R&D expenses, contributing to its optimistic financial outlook [6][10][23] - **Management Software as AI Core**: Management software is viewed as a critical vehicle for AI development in enterprises, with Kingdee leveraging its experience and technological advantages to maintain a competitive edge in this area [7][14][16] - **Strategic Adjustments**: Kingdee has undergone multiple management structure adjustments to enhance operational efficiency, transitioning from a linear to a regional structure and finally to a divisional structure to better align sales, delivery, and product iteration [11][12] Additional Important Insights - **Customer Contribution**: In 2024, large customers contributed approximately 25% of Kingdee's revenue, with rapid growth observed in this segment. The company is expected to continue expanding its large customer base, which will drive future growth [13][23] - **AI and Agent Technology**: Kingdee has made significant strides in AI and agent technology, establishing a complete agent product based on its platforms. The company plans to enhance its offerings by integrating third-party models to address various business scenarios [19][22] - **SaaS Payment Model Trends**: The future of the SaaS payment model may shift towards pay-per-use, allowing for value-sharing based on customer savings, which could alleviate profit release concerns [21] - **Market Positioning**: Kingdee's strategic initiatives, including establishing a presence in the Middle East and focusing on platform ecosystem development, position the company favorably for future growth in emerging markets [12][23] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting Kingdee International's strategic direction, financial outlook, and market positioning within the ERP and cloud computing industry.