[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务/软件 证券研究报告 金蝶国际（0268）公司 云业务盈利持续改善， AI 应用加速落地 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 主要财务数据及预测 | [Table_FinanceInfo] | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 5,679 | 6,256 | 6,998 | 7,930 | 9,155 | | （+/-）YoY（%） | 16.7% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 15.4% | | 净利润（百万元） | 3,644 | 4,071 | 4,689 | 5,432 | 6,408 | | （+/-）YoY（%） | -210 | -142 | 91 | 297 | 560 | | 全面摊薄 EPS（元） | 46.1% | 32.3% | 163.8% | 228.0% | 88.2% | | 毛利率（%） | -191.72 | -290.20 | 455.45 | 1 ...

Core Insights - Kingdee International reported a recurring revenue of approximately RMB 3.56 billion for its cloud subscription services for the first quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of about 20% [1] - The net renewal rates for various Kingdee cloud products are as follows: Kingdee Cloud · Cangqiong & Xinghan at 108%, Kingdee Cloud · Xingkong at 94%, Kingdee Cloud · Xingchen at 92%, and Kingdee Jingdou Cloud at 88% [1] Financial Performance - The annual recurring revenue for Kingdee Cloud subscription services reached approximately RMB 3.56 billion [1] - The year-on-year growth rate for this revenue is approximately 20% [1] Product Performance - The net renewal rates for Kingdee's cloud products indicate strong customer retention, with rates of 108%, 94%, 92%, and 88% for different services [1]

Key Points Summary of Kingdee International Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kingdee International - **Industry**: Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) and Cloud Computing Core Insights and Arguments - **ERP Market Growth**: The ERP market is showing significant improvement in competitive landscape and management optimization, with strong growth expected throughout the year. ERP companies are projected to achieve net inflows in the billions, with valuations around 20 to 30 times sales, making them ideal for medium to long-term investments [3][4][6] - **Cloud Transformation Strategy**: Kingdee has firmly committed to a cloud transformation strategy since 2014, with cloud revenue now accounting for over 80% of total revenue. The company anticipates returning to profitability by 2025, with a projected operating cash flow of over 13 billion yuan [3][6][10] - **Product Structure and Innovation**: Kingdee has developed a comprehensive product structure covering large, medium, and small enterprises, demonstrating strategic resilience through industry cycles. The company has launched various platforms tailored to different customer sizes, enhancing its market reach [3][5][8][17] - **Financial Performance**: Kingdee's financial performance has improved since 2022, with operating cash flow reaching 9.3 billion yuan in 2024 and expected to exceed 13 billion yuan in 2025. The company has effectively controlled sales and R&D expenses, contributing to its optimistic financial outlook [6][10][23] - **Management Software as AI Core**: Management software is viewed as a critical vehicle for AI development in enterprises, with Kingdee leveraging its experience and technological advantages to maintain a competitive edge in this area [7][14][16] - **Strategic Adjustments**: Kingdee has undergone multiple management structure adjustments to enhance operational efficiency, transitioning from a linear to a regional structure and finally to a divisional structure to better align sales, delivery, and product iteration [11][12] Additional Important Insights - **Customer Contribution**: In 2024, large customers contributed approximately 25% of Kingdee's revenue, with rapid growth observed in this segment. The company is expected to continue expanding its large customer base, which will drive future growth [13][23] - **AI and Agent Technology**: Kingdee has made significant strides in AI and agent technology, establishing a complete agent product based on its platforms. The company plans to enhance its offerings by integrating third-party models to address various business scenarios [19][22] - **SaaS Payment Model Trends**: The future of the SaaS payment model may shift towards pay-per-use, allowing for value-sharing based on customer savings, which could alleviate profit release concerns [21] - **Market Positioning**: Kingdee's strategic initiatives, including establishing a presence in the Middle East and focusing on platform ecosystem development, position the company favorably for future growth in emerging markets [12][23] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting Kingdee International's strategic direction, financial outlook, and market positioning within the ERP and cloud computing industry.

Core Viewpoint - Kingdee International, a SaaS giant with over 30 years of history, continues to report losses despite a significant transformation towards cloud services, raising questions about its long-term viability and market confidence [1][8]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, Kingdee reported revenue of 6.256 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.15%, but a net loss attributable to shareholders of 142 million RMB, which is a 32.13% improvement compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The company has incurred losses for five consecutive years, totaling approximately 1.38 billion RMB over this period [3][9]. Market Reaction - Following the financial report, Kingdee's stock price dropped by 8.35%, and it has seen a decline of over 20% in recent trading sessions [3][4]. - Morgan Stanley downgraded Kingdee's rating to "equal weight" with a target price of 13.50 HKD, reflecting market skepticism about the company's future performance [4]. Transformation Challenges - Kingdee's transition to a cloud-based SaaS model has led to increased research and development costs, which rose from 983.9 million RMB in 2020 to 1.514 billion RMB in 2024 [9][10]. - The company faces intense competition from both large enterprises and smaller firms, leading to high customer acquisition costs and necessitating aggressive pricing strategies [10][11]. Strategic Initiatives - In early 2024, Kingdee announced an "ALL IN AI" strategy, aiming for 20% of its revenue to come from AI-related businesses by 2030, indicating a shift in focus to artificial intelligence as a potential growth driver [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][9]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading domestic management software provider, leveraging a "Cloud + AI" dual-engine strategy to empower digital transformation for enterprises [8][17]. - The company has entered a harvest phase for its cloud services, with expectations of profitability by 2025, driven by rapid growth in contract liabilities and operating cash flow [8][9]. - The integration of AI into management software is seen as a core trend, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing the barriers to software usage [8][57]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 73 billion, 87 billion, and 105 billion RMB respectively, with net profits expected to be 1 billion, 2.4 billion, and 4.4 billion RMB [6][9]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in revenue growth rates, particularly in its cloud services, with expected growth rates of 40% for its major product lines [10]. Company Strategy and Market Position - The company has successfully transitioned through multiple strategic phases, from financial software to management software, and now to cloud services, with a strong focus on AI integration [18][24]. - The introduction of AI Agents is expected to revolutionize the software industry by addressing customization challenges and enhancing profitability for software companies [8][88]. Product Matrix and Market Segmentation - The company offers a diverse product matrix catering to large, medium, and small enterprises, with cloud-native solutions designed to meet varying business needs [75][84]. - The cloud transformation has significantly improved the company's operational quality, with cloud revenue now accounting for 82% of total revenue [6][28]. Future Outlook - The report highlights the potential for AI Agents to drive significant advancements in management software, positioning the company to capitalize on emerging market opportunities [8][88]. - The strategic partnership with Qatar Investment Authority is expected to accelerate the company's international expansion, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa [54].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 6.256 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, driven primarily by cloud services [8][18] - The annual recurring revenue (ARR) from cloud subscriptions reached approximately 3.44 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 20% [9][18] - The company is in a rapid growth phase, with expectations for revenue growth of 16.9% in 2025 and 15.8% in 2026 [3][28] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net loss of 1.42 billion RMB, a significant reduction of 32% compared to the previous year [2][18] - The gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points, and the operating expense ratio decreased by 2.0 percentage points [2][18] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 934 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43% [9][18] Revenue Breakdown - Cloud service revenue accounted for 81.6% of total revenue, amounting to 5.107 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4% [8][18] - The company’s enterprise cloud services, small and micro financial cloud services, and industry cloud services generated revenues of 3.658 billion RMB, 1.229 billion RMB, and 220 million RMB, respectively [14][18] - The large enterprise segment saw a 30% increase in cloud subscription ARR, with a net renewal rate of 108% [14][18] Future Outlook - The company maintains a revenue CAGR guidance of 15-20% for 2024-2026, with a subscription ARR CAGR of 30% [3][28] - Expected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 7.314 billion RMB and 8.468 billion RMB, respectively [3][28] - The company is focusing on AI integration to enhance its product offerings and drive future growth [24][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.256 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, driven primarily by cloud services [8][18] - The annual recurring revenue (ARR) from cloud subscriptions reached approximately 3.44 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 20% [8][18] - The company is in a rapid growth phase, with expectations for revenue growth to continue at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15-20% from 2024 to 2026 [3][28] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net loss of 1.42 billion RMB, a significant reduction of 32% compared to the previous year [2][18] - The gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points, and the operating expense ratio decreased by 2.0 percentage points [2][18] - Operating cash flow reached 934 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43% [2][18] Revenue Breakdown - Cloud service revenue accounted for 81.6% of total revenue, amounting to 5.107 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4% [8][18] - The company’s enterprise cloud services, small and micro financial cloud services, and industry cloud services generated revenues of 3.658 billion RMB, 1.229 billion RMB, and 220 million RMB, respectively, with growth rates of 17.0%, 13.8%, and -26% [14][18] - The large enterprise cloud subscription ARR grew by 30%, with a net renewal rate of 108% [14][18] Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve revenues of 7.314 billion RMB, 8.468 billion RMB, and 9.689 billion RMB in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.9%, 15.8%, and 14.4% [3][28] - The transition to cloud services and the integration of AI technologies are anticipated to drive future growth and profitability [24][28] - The company aims to leverage AI to enhance its product offerings and improve operational efficiency, with plans to accelerate AI transformation in the coming years [24][28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the fundamentals are likely to continue supporting the relative performance of Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the internet sector, as evidenced by the rise of the Hong Kong Internet ETF (159568) and individual stocks like Kingdee International [1][2] - As of March 25, 2025, the Hong Kong Internet ETF has shown a maximum monthly return of 30.31% since its inception, with a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [1][2] - The ETF's management fee is 0.50% and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Internet ETF closely tracks the CSI Hong Kong Internet Index, which consists of 30 listed companies involved in internet-related businesses [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong Internet Index account for 78.75% of the index, with major players including Alibaba, Xiaomi, and Tencent [3][4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the index is 24.21, indicating it is at a historical low compared to the past five years [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.256 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.2%. The cloud business contributed 5.107 billion yuan, growing by 13.4% and accounting for 81.6% of total revenue. The annual recurring revenue (ARR) from cloud subscriptions reached 3.43 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, with contract liabilities increasing by 28.5%. The net loss attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 142 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 270 million yuan in 2023 [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.256 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.040 billion yuan, 7.965 billion yuan, and 8.912 billion yuan, respectively, indicating growth rates of 12.5%, 13.1%, and 11.9% [10] - The net profit for 2024 was a loss of 142 million yuan, with forecasts of 96 million yuan, 237 million yuan, and 416 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, showing significant year-on-year growth of 167.9%, 145.8%, and 75.4% [10] Product Development - The company has fully empowered its products with AI, leading to a revenue of 1.304 billion yuan from its large client offerings, which grew by 32.9% year-on-year. The total contract value reached approximately 2.1 billion yuan, up 51.9% year-on-year [5] - The small and micro product segment also saw the implementation of AI features, generating 1.229 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, with a net renewal rate of 93% [5] Future Outlook - The company expects revenues for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 to be 7.040 billion yuan, 7.965 billion yuan, and 8.912 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 96 million yuan, 237 million yuan, and 416 million yuan [7][10] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on these projections, indicating confidence in its growth trajectory and profitability improvements [7]

Summary of Kingdee International Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kingdee International - **Industry**: China Software/SaaS Key Points and Arguments Performance Highlights - Kingdee's stock has outperformed significantly year-to-date, with a gain of **77%**, compared to **32%** for HSTECH and **36%** for its peers [1][2] - The company achieved a **10%** revenue growth in FY24, reaching **RMB 6.3 billion**, which is notable against peers like Yonyou, which experienced a **7%** revenue decline [7][19] - Operating cash flow reached a near-record of **RMB 934 million**, up **43%** year-over-year [7][19] - Despite a **-2%** net profit margin, Kingdee's performance was characterized as "very respectable" given macroeconomic challenges [7][19] Financial Metrics - Kingdee's adjusted EPS for FY25E is projected at **RMB 0.08**, down from a previous estimate of **RMB 0.12** [5] - The company maintains a **6x EV/sales** multiple for FY25E, which is considered reasonable compared to global ERP peers trading at around **8x** [2][14] - The gross profit margin improved to **65.1%**, up **90bps** from the previous year [19] Market Position and Growth Potential - Kingdee is viewed as the best play in the China software/SaaS space, benefiting from policy tailwinds from Digital China and localization efforts [10][14] - The company is expected to continue double-digit top-line growth, with a projected **13% CAGR** from FY24 to FY27 [14] - Kingdee's cloud products, particularly Cloud Cosmic and Constellation, showed strong growth, with a **33%** increase in revenue [19] Challenges and Risks - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth decelerated to **20%**, down from **34%** in FY23, primarily due to macroeconomic headwinds affecting mid-sized enterprises [17][19] - The large enterprise segment, while growing at **30%**, still represents a small portion (26%) of total cloud revenues [17][19] Valuation Insights - The price target for Kingdee is set at **HK$ 17.5** by December 2025, based on DCF analysis, implying a **7x** forward EV/Sales [11][14] - The valuation reflects a sustainable net margin potential of **20-30%** as the company ramps up its operations [14] Additional Considerations - Kingdee's management will host an FY24 results briefing on **March 18, 2025**, which will provide further insights into the company's performance and outlook [20] - The company has a strong cash position with approximately **RMB 4 billion** in net cash as of the end of FY24 [19] Conclusion Kingdee International is positioned strongly within the China software/SaaS industry, demonstrating resilience and growth potential despite macroeconomic challenges. The company's focus on cloud services and strategic positioning in the market, combined with a reasonable valuation, makes it a compelling investment opportunity.