出口消息扰动，尿素领涨煤化工，后续价格走势如何？

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing slight price increases due to improved production rates and market sentiment, but overall demand remains cautious with a focus on export quota developments [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - Urea prices in Shandong have slightly increased, with small granular urea trading at 1540-1590 RMB/ton and large granular urea at 1740-1760 RMB/ton [2]. - The overall market sentiment has been positively influenced by recent export news, although the follow-up market response has been less than expected [2][4]. - The industry’s daily production rate is reported at 19.59 thousand tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.08 thousand tons from the previous day [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Urea production rates have improved as previously shut-down facilities are coming back online, leading to an accumulation of inventory [3][7]. - As of November 5, total inventory for Chinese urea enterprises reached 157.81 million tons, an increase of 2.38 million tons week-on-week, reflecting a 1.53% rise [3][8]. - Agricultural demand is tapering off as the wheat planting season concludes, while industrial demand is gradually increasing, particularly from compound fertilizer manufacturers [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the new export quota news could lead to a stronger market performance, but caution is advised as the actual impact remains to be seen [4][5]. - There is speculation that export quotas may be significantly relaxed next year, but the export window for this year is likely to remain closed [5][7]. - The overall expectation is for prices to remain volatile with a tendency towards weakness due to limited increases in future export expectations [8].