Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, influenced by environmental policies, macroeconomic factors, and seasonal trends, leading to fluctuations in lead prices. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The main lead contract in Shanghai has shown a fluctuating upward trend due to environmental policies in Henan and Hebei, which have increased the circulation period of scrap and recycled lead, alongside slower-than-expected recovery in recycled lead production, resulting in low refinery inventories that support lead prices [1] - Overseas, while some mines like Endeavor and Tara are expected to provide incremental production, the overall increase is limited. Domestic mines are facing production halts, and despite some recovery in certain regions, the overall supply of lead ore is expected to remain stable [3] - The supply of recycled lead is facing environmental risks as northern regions prepare for heating, which may lead to production restrictions, potentially tightening supply in the short term [4] Group 2: Demand Trends - Demand for electric bicycles is transitioning from peak to off-peak seasons, with a seasonal decline expected. However, the implementation of new national standards is driving production line upgrades, maintaining some demand for lead-acid batteries [5][6] - The automotive sector is seeing limited growth in sales due to demand exhaustion, but there are signs of recovery in battery replacement demand as temperatures drop [6] - Overall, the lead-acid battery demand is expected to see slight increases, but high inventory levels among distributors may limit substantial upward pressure on prices [7] Group 3: Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment appears bearish for the fourth quarter, but its short-term impact on lead prices is expected to be limited. The supply side variables are primarily related to recycled lead, which may maintain an increasing production pace despite potential environmental restrictions [7] - Lead prices are likely to experience fluctuations driven by recycled lead supply, with a potential downward trend if large-scale production resumes without external disruptions. However, environmental restrictions and adverse weather conditions may hinder the flow of recycled lead, leading to a volatile price outlook [7]
铅：供应扰动主导 铅价震荡运行
Wen Hua Cai Jing·2025-11-07 11:26