ADP jobs report surprises amid data drought

Core Insights - The government shutdown has led to a "data fog," causing reliance on private data sources to assess economic conditions [1] - The ADP National Employment Report indicates a surprising increase in private-sector employment for October [2] Employment Data - The ADP payroll report, based on anonymized data from over 26 million private-sector employees, provides a high-frequency view of the labor market [3][4] - In October, private-sector employment rose by 42,000 jobs, with a year-over-year pay increase of 4.5% [5] - The growth in employment was primarily driven by the education, health care, and trade, transportation, and utilities sectors [5] Job Losses and Sector Performance - For the third consecutive month, job losses occurred in professional business services, information, and leisure and hospitality sectors [6] - The breakdown of job changes by industry shows: - Goods-producing: 9,000 jobs - Service-providing: 33,000 jobs [9] - Regional job changes indicate: - Northeast: -12,000 - Midwest: 9,000 - South: 6,000 - West: 40,000 [10] Detailed Sector Analysis - Specific job changes by sector include: - Natural resources/mining: 7,000 - Construction: 5,000 - Manufacturing: -3,000 - Trade/transportation/utilities: 47,000 - Information: -17,000 - Financial activities: 11,000 - Professional/business services: -15,000 - Education/health services: 26,000 - Leisure/hospitality: -6,000 - Other services: -13,000 [11]