安琪酵母(600298)：25Q3海外市场表现出色 成本红利持续释放

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.79 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.12 billion yuan, up 17.1% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 970 million yuan, an increase of 15% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.89 billion yuan, a 4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 320 million yuan, up 21% year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue from yeast and deep processing products was 8.4 billion yuan (+8.9%), sugar products 640 million yuan (-28.6%), and packaging products 270 million yuan (-12.7%) [1] - In Q3 2025, the revenue from these categories was 2.65 billion yuan (+2%), 260 million yuan (-17%), and 70 million yuan (-34%) respectively [1] - Domestic revenue in Q3 2025 was 2.19 billion yuan (-3.5%), while international revenue was 1.69 billion yuan (+17.7%) [1] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 25.5%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin was 24.4%, up 3.1 percentage points [2] - The improvement in gross margin was attributed to a decline in molasses costs, reduced shipping costs, and continuous product structure improvement [2] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 8.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Outlook - The company is the largest YE supplier and the second-largest yeast supplier globally, with a total yeast production capacity exceeding 450,000 tons [2] - Domestic molasses prices are expected to decline, and expansion in Egypt and Russia will enhance overseas cost advantages [2] - The outlook for revenue growth remains positive due to improving domestic yeast market demand and successful overseas expansion [2] Earnings Forecast - EPS is projected to be 1.78 yuan, 2.10 yuan, and 2.43 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to dynamic PE ratios of 22x, 18x, and 16x [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these projections [3]