今晚非农又没了？美国政府停摆持续，美联储12月降息“难上加难”

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its sixth week, leading to the inability of the Labor Department to release critical non-farm payroll reports for the second consecutive month, creating unprecedented challenges for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in December [1][3][5] - Economists express concerns that key economic data, particularly the unemployment rate for October, may never be published due to the shutdown, resulting in a significant information void for policymakers [1][2][5] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The shutdown has resulted in a complete halt of government data, making it difficult for policymakers, investors, economists, and the general public to understand the economic situation clearly [3] - The Labor Department's data collection methods differ between business surveys and household surveys, complicating the collection of reliable unemployment data [2][4] - There is a growing risk that the Labor Department may abandon the collection of October data altogether, focusing instead on November data, which would mean the October unemployment rate may never be reported [2][4][5] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The lack of reliable data is exacerbating existing divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, with officials expressing differing views on the need for interest rate cuts [1][8] - Market expectations indicate a slightly higher than 50% chance of a rate cut in December, but the absence of key data complicates the decision-making process for the Fed [1][8] - The Fed's upcoming meeting in December may lack reliable employment data, contrasting with the situation in October, which could lead to further policy disagreements among officials [9] Group 3: Alternative Data Sources - In the absence of official data, the market is turning to private sector data, such as ADP's employment figures, which indicate weak job growth concentrated in specific sectors like education and healthcare [6][7] - However, private data cannot fully substitute for official statistics, particularly regarding inflation, leading to concerns about the quality and reliability of the available information [6][7] - The quality of government data is under scrutiny, with some officials fearing that this could lead to more aggressive rate cuts from those worried about labor market conditions, while others may advocate for a pause due to inflation concerns [7][8]