鑫元基金张峥青：政策与周期共振，科技投资进入新阶段

Core Insights - The core idea of the article emphasizes the strategic importance of "technological self-reliance and strength" in China's 14th Five-Year Plan, indicating a strong focus on technological innovation as a key driver for economic development [1][2]. Policy and Market Opportunities - The A-share technology sector is expected to have significant potential due to the "14th Five-Year Plan" which aims to accelerate high-level technological self-reliance and lead the development of new productive forces [2]. - The government is set to provide continuous financial and resource support to sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, industrial automation, and green energy over the next decade, enhancing the growth and profitability expectations for the technology industry [2][3]. Impact of Global Interest Rate Changes - Changes in the global interest rate environment will affect technology companies through five main channels: 1. Discount rates and risk premiums will directly impact the valuation of growth-oriented technology companies, particularly in sectors like SaaS, cloud computing, and AI applications [3]. 2. Global liquidity and cross-border capital flows will influence the valuation of technology sectors in emerging markets, with lower interest rates improving liquidity and market focus on growth-oriented technology [3][4]. 3. Lower financing costs will benefit capital expenditures in technology firms, particularly in AI infrastructure investments [4]. 4. Currency fluctuations will affect profit margins for import-dependent technology manufacturers, improving cost structures during periods of a weaker dollar [4]. 5. Changes in risk appetite will drive shifts in investment styles, favoring high-growth technology stocks during periods of declining interest rates [4][5]. Identifying Policy Benefits and Risks - Investors should focus on performance and competitive advantages rather than merely chasing concepts, emphasizing the importance of matching valuation with profitability [6][8]. - The essence of valuation risk lies in the risk of realization, where short-term volatility in the technology sector often stems from market overestimation of growth expectations [6][8]. - A balanced investment approach is recommended, focusing on core assets with global competitiveness and innovation capabilities while being flexible in response to policy signals and market conditions [7][8]. Evaluating Valuation Risks - The technology sector's valuation is closely tied to market risk appetite and liquidity, with some segments experiencing short-term overheating and potential valuation bubbles [8][10]. - Investors should return to fundamentals, focusing on quantifiable performance indicators such as customer conversion rates, order visibility, and free cash flow [8][10]. Understanding Policy Dynamics - Distinguishing between long-term "institutional dividends" and short-term "emotional catalysts" is crucial for investors, as policies must be understood in terms of their transmission mechanisms and execution capabilities [9][10]. - The true value of policies is reflected in their long-term impact on industry data, such as fiscal spending and project approvals, rather than immediate market reactions [11].