亚洲AI泡沫“初裂”？韩股给出了第一个危险信号

Core Insights - The Korean stock market is signaling a potential peak in the Asian AI investment boom, with the KOSPI index experiencing significant volatility after a period of strong upward movement [1] - The KOSPI index has shown a perfect correlation with the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AIQ) since May, but recent trends indicate a reversal with consecutive declines and high volatility [1] - Technical indicators for the KOSPI index reveal overbought conditions, with the weekly and monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching extreme levels [4] Market Sentiment and Volatility - A warning from Bank of America indicates that the volatility curve structure has become extremely inverted since late October, reflecting a collective investor chase for upward exposure, typically signaling excessive optimism and potential for a market pullback [7] - The KOSPI index has shown significant alignment with U.S. AI stocks like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Palantir (PLTR), indicating a highly correlated global AI investment theme [8] Shift in Investment Focus - In September, there was a notable shift in focus among Korean investors from cryptocurrency to AI stocks, with a dramatic decline in cryptocurrency trading volumes on platforms like Upbit [10] - Data from Google Trends indicates that interest in SK Hynix has surpassed that of Bitcoin, highlighting a fundamental reallocation of investment towards semiconductor and AI-related stocks [10] Economic Significance of the Korean Market - The Korean stock market is closely monitored due to its unique position in the global economy, with over 40% of its GDP derived from exports in key sectors such as semiconductors, automobiles, batteries, and displays [13] - The KOSPI and KOSDAQ are often the preferred targets for international investors reallocating funds to Asia or emerging markets, reflecting the market's cyclical sensitivity [13] - The dominance of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics in HBM and AI memory sectors positions the Korean market as a real-time indicator of AI infrastructure strength, making any unusual fluctuations in the KOSPI globally significant [13]