Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-11-07 14:54Core Insights - The "Trump Shock" appears to have ended, with the market signaling a stabilization in the aftermath of Trump's return to the White House, despite recent political setbacks [1][2] - The dollar has regained strength, benefiting from its safe-haven status and inflows due to rising bond yields, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2][3] Tariff Impact - Tariff levels remain high, but the anticipated negative impact on the economy has not materialized as expected, with many countries opting for appeasement rather than retaliation [3][4] - Tariff revenues have significantly increased, reaching $30 billion in October from just $5 billion at the beginning of the year, alleviating deficit concerns and suggesting a degree of permanence to the tariffs [3][4] - Companies are finding ways to mitigate the impact of tariffs, with actual tariff rates fluctuating significantly, dropping from a peak of 27.4% to 15.9% [4][5] Artificial Intelligence Boom - The AI boom is helping to absorb the impacts of the "Trump Shock," attracting significant investment into the U.S. from global tech giants [6] - Major tech companies are ramping up capital expenditures, which is expected to stimulate economic growth and potentially lead to a GDP growth rate exceeding 5% by 2026 [6] Inflation and Federal Reserve - Inflation is gradually rising, currently at 3%, with tariffs contributing to price increases, particularly in imported goods [7][9] - The government’s push to maintain a robust economy and pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates could exacerbate inflation risks [7][10] - The market sentiment suggests that while inflation is a concern, the immediate impact of the "Trump Shock" on prices may not yet be fully realized [10]