非农再"缺席"，美联储陷盲飞危机！12月降息分歧加剧？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its sixth week, leading to the absence of the October non-farm payroll report, which is causing significant uncertainty in the labor market and economic indicators [1][5]. Market Reaction - U.S. stock markets experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.6%, S&P 500 down 1.01%, and Nasdaq down 1.73% [1][2]. - Major tech stocks, including Tesla and Nvidia, saw significant drops, with Tesla falling over 4% and Nvidia over 3% [1]. Economic Data and Labor Market - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in a lack of official labor market data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates [5][7]. - Alternative data indicates a struggling labor market, with a sharp slowdown in hiring and an increase in layoffs, particularly in the tech and warehousing sectors [5][6]. - Challenger's data shows over 153,000 layoffs announced in October, a 1.75-fold increase year-on-year, marking the highest level since 2003 [5]. - The ISM services employment index is at 48.2% and manufacturing at 46%, both indicating economic contraction [6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The absence of key economic data has led to heightened expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [7][10]. - The White House's National Economic Council director stated that the shutdown's impact on the economy is more severe than anticipated, predicting a slowdown in Q4 GDP growth [7]. - There are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the direction of monetary policy, with some officials advocating for caution in light of persistent inflation [10][11]. Market Implications - Bridgewater's Dalio warns that the Fed's rate cuts may be fueling asset bubbles, suggesting that the current stock market rally, driven by tech stocks, may be nearing its peak [11]. - Analysts predict that gold prices will remain high in the coming weeks, but uncertainty surrounding the Fed's December decisions poses risks to future price movements [12].