Rigetti Pre-Q3 Earnings Analysis: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is expected to release its third-quarter 2025 results on November 10, with a consensus estimate for loss per share at 5 cents and revenues at $2.39 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 37.5% in earnings but only a modest revenue growth of 0.4% [1][2] Financial Performance - The consensus for 2025 revenues is $8.7 million, reflecting a decline of 19.7% year over year, while the loss per share is estimated at 9 cents, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 75% [2] - RGTI has had mixed performance in the past four quarters, surpassing estimates once, missing once, and meeting expectations twice, resulting in an average earnings surprise of negative 10.8% [2] Earnings Estimates - The earnings estimates for the upcoming quarters remain stable, with the loss per share projected at -0.05 for Q1, -0.04 for Q2, -0.09 for F1, and -0.17 for F2 [3] Market Position and Valuation - RGTI currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, indicating lower chances of beating estimates [5][6] - Year-to-date, RGTI shares have gained 125.1%, outperforming the broader Internet Software industry, which advanced 10.2% [11] Strategic Developments - The third-quarter results are likely to be influenced by U.S. public-sector funding uncertainties, particularly due to the expiration of the National Quantum Initiative [7] - Rigetti's rollout of the Cepheus-1-36Q, the largest multichip quantum system, is expected to provide early benefits, with strong technical gains and access through Rigetti QCS and Microsoft Azure [8][9] - The company has over $570 million in cash and no debt, positioning it well for continued system development [9] Long-Term Vision - Rigetti aims to deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system with approximately 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity by the end of 2025, with a long-term goal of achieving a 1,000-qubit system [15] - Recent orders for Novera QPU systems indicate growing demand for quantum systems beyond government labs, suggesting potential for broader enterprise adoption [16][17] Partnerships and Collaborations - A strategic collaboration with Quanta Computer Inc. involves over $100 million in commitments from both partners, supporting manufacturing scale and system commercialization [18] - Integration with NVIDIA's DGX Quantum platform highlights Rigetti's focus on hybrid quantum-classical workflows, enhancing its ecosystem [18] Future Outlook - The upcoming third-quarter results are expected to reflect steady progress on Rigetti's chiplet-based roadmap, with continued focus on fidelity metrics and system deliveries rather than just near-term revenues [19][21] - While the balance sheet provides a cushion for ongoing investments, visibility into larger commercial demand remains limited, suggesting a cautious approach for prospective investors [21]