Ge Long Hui·2025-11-07 19:50Core Insights - S.F. Holding's 3Q25 results slightly missed expectations, with revenue increasing by 8% YoY to Rmb78.40 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9% YoY to Rmb2.57 billion, indicating temporary profit pressure due to operational strategy adjustments [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue growth was driven by a 33% YoY increase in parcel volume, significantly outpacing the broader market's 14% growth [1] - Recurring attributable net profit fell 14% YoY to Rmb2.23 billion, with a recurring profit margin of 2.8%, down 0.7ppt YoY [1] - Asset-related expenses decreased by 3% YoY to approximately Rmb6.7 billion, while free cash flow reached about Rmb12.7 billion [2] Group 2: Strategic Developments - The firm's strategy of improving business operations is expected to enhance revenue growth, with express logistics revenue growing by 12% YoY [1] - The increase in total share buyback from Rmb0.5–1 billion to Rmb1.5–3 billion reflects the firm's confidence in long-term growth and commitment to shareholder returns [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 3% to Rmb315.5 billion and Rmb344.8 billion, respectively, due to anticipated benefits from operational improvements [3] - Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 7% and 6% to Rmb10.9 billion and Rmb12.8 billion, respectively, due to rising labor costs [3] - The target price remains unchanged, with H-shares trading at 16x 2026e P/E, implying a 30% upside potential [4]