被特朗普铜关税暴击才过三个月，"史上最赚钱"套利交易卷土重来？

Core Insights - The copper arbitrage trading, previously impacted by tariffs, is resurging as traders bet on potential high tariffs on copper by the Trump administration next year [1][2] - Major trading firms like Mercuria, Vitol, and Trafigura are negotiating annual supply agreements for copper with Chilean producers for 2026, with offers exceeding the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark price by over $500 per ton [1][2] - The expectation of renewed tariffs has led to a significant increase in New York Comex copper prices, which are now substantially higher than LME futures prices [1][2] Group 1 - Earlier this year, traders like Mercuria and Trafigura profited significantly by shipping large quantities of copper to the U.S. before the initial tariff proposal by Trump in February [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has suggested delaying the imposition of a 15% tariff until 2027, increasing to 30% by 2028, creating uncertainty that traders are capitalizing on [2] - Traders are willing to pay high premiums for copper as they anticipate being able to resell it at higher prices in the U.S. market [2] Group 2 - In July, the Trump administration's unexpected exemption of raw copper from tariffs led to a dramatic market reaction, with Comex copper futures dropping 22% in a single day, marking the largest decline since at least 1988 [3][4] - The exemption caused a rapid disappearance of the price premium that Comex copper had over LME prices, leading to a shift to a discount [3] - Following the exemption announcement, the number of profitable put options surged, indicating a significant market shift [4]