10月物价前瞻：CPI同比或回升，核心通胀有望延续复苏态势

Group 1: CPI Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics will release October's consumer price index (CPI) data on November 9 at 9:30 AM [1] - In September, the national CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while the core CPI rose by 1.0%, marking the first return to 1% in nearly 19 months [2] - Multiple institutions predict a rebound in October's CPI, with estimates ranging from -0.1% to 0.1% [2] - Pork prices continue to negatively impact the CPI, with wholesale prices declining year-on-year from -26.3% to -27.2% in October [2] - Prices for 28 monitored vegetables and 7 monitored fruits are expected to improve, with year-on-year declines narrowing from -18.7% and -5.3% to -10.0% and -2.7%, respectively [2] Group 2: PPI Insights - Institutions anticipate a slight increase in the year-on-year decline of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for October, reflecting weak short-term economic performance [4] - In September, the national PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year and remained flat month-on-month [4] - Forecasts for October's PPI year-on-year change range from -2.2% to -2.6% [4] - The PMI for major raw material purchase prices and factory prices fell by 0.7 percentage points compared to September, indicating a potential month-on-month PPI decline [5] - The fluctuation in PPI is influenced by international commodity prices and domestic industry competition, with expectations of a year-on-year PPI decline of -2.6% and a month-on-month decline of -0.6% [5]