上市银行净息差悬于1.3%，银行传统盈利模式或宣告终结

Core Insights - The A-share banking sector reported a total operating income exceeding 4.3 trillion yuan for the first three quarters, with the six major state-owned banks achieving a profit scale of 1.07 trillion yuan, indicating strong performance despite underlying structural issues [1][2] - The net interest margin (NIM) has shown signs of stabilization, yet remains at historically low levels, with retail loan delinquency rates continuing to rise, highlighting potential long-term challenges for the banking industry [1][4] Group 1: Net Interest Margin Trends - The banking sector's NIM showed a slight recovery in Q3 2025, with Jiangyin Bank reporting a NIM of 1.56%, up 2 basis points from Q2, and Ruifeng Bank at 1.49%, up 3 basis points, contributing to a 6.12% year-on-year increase in net interest income [1][2] - Despite short-term stabilization, the long-term trend of declining NIM persists, with the average NIM for commercial banks at 1.42% in Q2 2025, down 0.12 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] Group 2: Asset Quality and Retail Loan Risks - The overall asset quality of the banking sector appears stable, with most banks maintaining non-performing loan (NPL) ratios below 1.5%, but retail loans are becoming a high-risk area, with consumer loan NPL rates rising to 1.29% as of Q2 2025 [4][5] - The increase in retail loan delinquency is attributed to employment pressures affecting borrowers' income stability, leading to heightened "co-borrowing" risks, where clients with multiple loans face significantly higher delinquency rates [4][5] Group 3: Business Structure and Revenue Sources - Traditional lending remains a dominant revenue source for banks, but there is a growing need for diversification into intermediary services, as evidenced by a 4.60% year-on-year increase in net fee and commission income for A-share listed banks [6][7] - The shift towards a dual-driven model of "lending + wealth management" is essential for improving profitability in retail banking, requiring long-term customer cultivation and ecosystem development [6][7] Group 4: Non-Performing Loan Management - The improvement in NPL ratios is largely driven by increased asset disposal efforts, with a significant rise in the volume of bad debt write-offs and transfers, indicating a proactive approach to managing asset quality [7][8] - However, the reduction in NPLs does not eliminate long-term risks, particularly in the real estate sector, where NPL rates remain elevated, and smaller banks face greater challenges due to concentrated lending practices [8][9]