克而瑞：今年房贷断供率，暴涨了130%！

Core Insights - The national average mortgage default rate has reached 3.7% in 2025, a staggering increase of 130% compared to 2022, reflecting the harsh realities of the real estate market and the complex interplay of various social and economic factors [1][3] Group 1: Characteristics of Defaulting Borrowers - The defaulting group primarily consists of middle-aged individuals aged 35 to 50, with a monthly income of 10,000 to 20,000 yuan, and mortgage debts ranging from 1 million to 3 million yuan [3] - These households typically purchased properties at high prices and are now facing shrinking incomes along with increasing pressures from child-rearing and elder care, leading to a depletion of financial flexibility [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The cyclical adjustment of the real estate market has exacerbated the crisis, with housing price indices in 100 major cities declining for 18 consecutive months since 2024, and some third- and fourth-tier cities experiencing price drops exceeding 30% [3] - The increase in "negative equity" households, where property values fall below outstanding loan balances, has diminished the motivation to maintain mortgage payments [3] Group 3: Regional Disparities - There is a notable divergence in default rates across different cities; new first-tier cities like Hangzhou and Suzhou have default rates at 2.8%, significantly lower than the national average, supported by new economic drivers [4] - In contrast, resource-dependent cities and areas with population outflows have default rates exceeding 5%, with some cities reaching alarming levels of 8% [4] Group 4: Macroeconomic Context - The surge in mortgage defaults is not coincidental but rather a manifestation of the pains associated with China's economic transition, influenced by accelerated industrial restructuring and challenges in traditional sectors [6] - The employment market in urban areas has been under pressure due to the relocation of manufacturing, optimization in the internet sector, and regulatory changes in the education and training industry [6] Group 5: Policy Implications - Addressing the current wave of defaults requires a multifaceted approach beyond financial measures, necessitating coordinated efforts in employment markets, social security, and industrial policies [8] - The next 12 to 18 months are critical for risk management, requiring a balanced approach between short-term stability and long-term reforms to prevent credit risks in the real estate market from spreading to the financial system and social stability [8]