中金2026年展望生物医药：创新主旋律，出海与商保破局

Core Insights - The continuous release of drug review reform dividends, supported by domestic engineer advantages, abundant clinical resources, and favorable policies, has led to the transition of domestic innovative drugs from following trends to FIC/BIC innovation [1][2] - Chinese innovative drugs are entering the international stage, marking a shift from "importing imitation" to "innovative output" [2] - The medical anti-corruption campaign that began in 2023 is expected to stabilize by 2025, with a gradual easing of its impact on the industry [1][8] Group 1: Industry Trends - The Chinese innovative drug industry has entered its 2.0 phase, with a significant increase in license-out transactions, reaching a total of $40.8 billion in the first half of 2025, a 96% year-on-year increase [2] - The focus on AI in healthcare is gaining momentum, with advancements in algorithm optimization and the widespread application of large models, indicating a promising future for AI+medical integration [10] - The medical device sector is also expected to see growth, with an increasing number of companies expanding internationally and establishing overseas sales teams [8] Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The first batch of generic drug procurement price anchors has loosened, moving away from a strict low-price focus, reflecting a shift in procurement policies [8] - The development of commercial health insurance is being encouraged by the government, which is expected to alleviate payment conflicts and expand the domestic market [9] - The healthcare investment landscape is stabilizing, with 357 financing transactions in the domestic healthcare sector totaling approximately $3.5 billion in the first half of 2025 [3]