2025可控核聚变全球商业化项目进展、技术拆解及产业链布局分析报告

Core Insights - The report discusses the progress and technological advancements in the global commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion, highlighting China's significant role in this competitive landscape [1][10]. Group 1: Global Competition and Technological Advances - The primary goal of controlled nuclear fusion is to replicate the fusion reactions occurring in the sun, achieving stable and controllable energy output on Earth. This requires overcoming the "fusion triple product" threshold, which is the product of plasma temperature, density, and confinement time reaching 10²¹ m⁻³・s・keV [2]. - The ITER project, involving 35 countries and costing over €20 billion, is the largest international nuclear fusion collaboration. By 2025, it will complete the installation of its core coil system, capable of generating a magnetic field of 11.8 Tesla to confine plasma at 150 million degrees Celsius. The project aims to conduct deuterium-tritium fusion experiments by 2034, targeting an energy gain factor of Q=10 [2][3]. - U.S. private companies are making significant strides in commercialization. Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) plans to validate Q>1 by 2026 and launch a 200 MW commercial reactor by 2030. Helion Energy has signed the world's first fusion power purchase agreement with Microsoft, promising a 50 MW plant by 2028 and expanding to 250 MW by 2030 [3]. Group 2: China's Breakthroughs and Diverse Approaches - In 2025, China achieved notable breakthroughs in controlled nuclear fusion, with both state-led and private sector initiatives advancing the "deuterium-tritium + hydrogen-boron" dual approach [4][5]. - The EAST (Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak) successfully maintained 100 million degrees Celsius plasma for 1066 seconds, setting a world record and demonstrating the capability for long-duration plasma confinement, essential for future power generation [4]. - The private sector's "Xuanlong-50U" device achieved significant milestones, including a million-ampere hydrogen-boron plasma discharge and stable operation at 1.2 Tesla for 1.6 seconds, marking a breakthrough in hydrogen-boron fusion technology [5]. Group 3: Diverse Technological Routes and Industry Development - The controlled nuclear fusion field is characterized by multiple technological routes, including magnetic confinement, inertial confinement, and emerging technologies, each with its advantages and challenges [6][7]. - The magnetic confinement route, particularly the tokamak design, remains the most mature, while the field-reversed configuration (FRC) and stellarator designs are also being explored for their potential benefits [6]. - The industry chain for controlled nuclear fusion is developing, with China achieving significant progress in domestic production of superconducting materials and key components for fusion devices, supporting the overall commercialization efforts [8][9]. Group 4: Future Energy Landscape - The global race for controlled nuclear fusion is driven by increasing energy demands and the need for sustainable energy solutions. The International Energy Agency predicts that global electricity demand will double by 2050, while fossil fuels face reduction pressures [10]. - Controlled nuclear fusion offers a solution with zero carbon emissions, sustainable raw materials, and stable 24-hour power supply, positioning it as a potential "ultimate energy" source for the future [10].