下周美国市场也不好过？美债发行潮来袭，流动性“雪上加霜”

Core Viewpoint - A significant wave of U.S. Treasury bond issuance is set to impact the market next week, coinciding with a recent decline in tech giants' market value and concerns over high valuations and economic signals [1][2]. Group 1: Upcoming Treasury Issuance - The U.S. Treasury plans to auction a total of $125 billion in various maturities next week, alongside an expected $40 billion in investment-grade corporate bonds [2][3]. - The issuance will occur during a shortened trading week due to the Veterans Day holiday, which may strain market liquidity [2][3]. - The Treasury aims to refinance maturing debt and raise approximately $26.8 billion in new funds from private investors [3]. Group 2: Market Liquidity Concerns - The upcoming bond issuance is particularly concerning given the already fragile liquidity environment in the U.S. financial system [4]. - Key liquidity indicators have shown signs of distress, with the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) spiking by 22 basis points, reaching the highest spread over the Federal Reserve's excess reserves rate since March 2020 [4]. - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has surged over $700 billion in the past three months due to government shutdown measures, leading to significant liquidity withdrawal from the market [6][8]. Group 3: Implications of Liquidity Tightening - The liquidity tightening has resulted in the lowest level of bank reserves since early 2021, with foreign commercial banks' cash assets dropping by over $300 billion in four months [8]. - Analysts warn that the scale of liquidity withdrawal could have tightening effects comparable to multiple interest rate hikes [8]. - There are concerns that continued deterioration in liquidity could trigger a chain reaction similar to the 2019 repo crisis [10].