上海财经大学校长揭秘消费困局！居民收入占比过低，如何破解？

Core Insights - The low consumption rate of Chinese residents is fundamentally a distribution issue, with final consumption rate around 55% compared to developed countries' average of about 80% [1][3] - China's resident consumption accounts for less than 40% of GDP, significantly lower than the global average of approximately 55% [3][5] - The income distribution imbalance is highlighted by the fact that government fiscal expenditure reaches 36% of GDP while residents' income share is only about 43% [3][5] Group 1: Consumption Rate and Economic Contribution - China's resident consumption rate is ranked 10th from the bottom among 149 economies, and it is the lowest among economies with populations over 8 million [3][5] - The contribution of consumption to GDP growth from 2001 to 2024 averages 51.8%, which, while over half, is still low compared to developed economies [3][5] - The disparity in disposable income share between residents and national income is about 20 percentage points lower in China compared to the U.S. [5] Group 2: Savings and Debt Pressure - The savings rate of Chinese residents reached 35% in 2023, significantly higher than Japan and South Korea's rates around 16% [7] - High housing prices and debt pressures are major factors suppressing consumption, with household leverage rising from 18.4% in 2007 to 62% in 2023 [7][9] - The debt-to-disposable income ratio for residents reached 143% in 2022, indicating a significant financial burden [7] Group 3: Investment vs. Consumption Imbalance - China exhibits a high investment rate but low final consumption and resident consumption rates, attributed to institutional factors favoring investment [9] - The government and state-owned enterprises' focus on forced savings and investment has led to insufficient social security and transfer payments, further suppressing consumption [9][10] - The disparity in income distribution is evident, with the Gini coefficient for market income in 18 EU countries being 0.443, while China's only decreased by 12.3% due to social security policies [9] Group 4: Social Safety Net and Policy Measures - China's social safety net and social construction lag behind economic development, with significant gaps in areas like childcare and elder care [10][12] - The decline in birth rates and inadequate elder care systems contribute to reduced spending capacity among households [12] - The government has initiated various policies to boost consumption, including a special action plan focusing on increasing residents' income and addressing concerns in healthcare and education [13][15]