吉宏股份(002803)季报点评：营收净利双高增 行业分化中突围

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.039 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.29%, with a net profit of 216 million yuan, up 60.11% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.805 billion yuan, a 25.04% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 97 million yuan, growing by 56.44% [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth Drivers - The growth in revenue is attributed to the rapid development of the cross-border e-commerce industry in China, supported by various government policies and a decline in shipping costs [1] - The company is actively expanding into new markets within the packaging industry, which has shown resilience and contributed stable growth despite industry pressures [1] Group 2: Cross-Border E-Commerce Business - The core engine for growth in the cross-border e-commerce segment is driven by technological breakthroughs and market focus, with the Giikin AI system enhancing operational efficiency [2] - The company’s revenue is predominantly concentrated in the Asian market, which helps mitigate risks associated with tariff fluctuations in Europe and the U.S. [2] - The brand transformation efforts, including the acquisition of Konciwa, have led to significant sales achievements, further boosting revenue growth in 2025 [2] Group 3: Packaging Business - The company holds a leading position in the domestic sales packaging market, providing comprehensive services to major clients like Yili and Luckin Coffee, contributing over 2 billion yuan in stable revenue from 2021 to 2024 [3] - The company has developed environmentally friendly packaging solutions, such as PLA/PBAT coated paper, which aligns with global trends towards sustainability [3] - The establishment of production bases in the UAE and Oman is expected to enhance the packaging business's growth and stability in the long term [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 6.650 billion yuan, 7.681 billion yuan, and 8.906 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 294 million yuan, 379 million yuan, and 519 million yuan [3]