海内外云厂商发展与现状（二）：AI投入、算力建设梳理与ROI测算

Group 1: AI Investment and Capital Expenditure - Global cloud vendors are significantly increasing their investments in AI, with capital expenditures and computing power construction showing remarkable growth characteristics [1][2] - Overseas cloud vendors began accelerating investments from Q3 2023, while domestic vendors are expected to start growth around mid-2024, with both maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of over 50% in capital expenditures [1][12] - Leading cloud vendors are investing more than 100% of their net profits and over 60% of their operating cash flow into AI infrastructure, indicating a strong commitment to capital investment [1][22] Group 2: Computing Power Construction - The global data center investment scale is rapidly increasing, projected to reach $600 billion by 2025 and potentially $3-4 trillion by 2030 [2][39] - Major overseas vendors like Microsoft plan to double their data center capacity to 10GW in the next two years, while Google has invested over $170 billion in three years, with GPU and TPU computing power each accounting for half [2][39] - Domestic vendors, such as Alibaba, plan to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure over the next three years, with energy consumption expected to reach 15GW by 2032 [2][39] Group 3: Chip Development and Layout - ASIC products are expected to be launched intensively in the coming years, with NVIDIA currently holding over 80% market share in the computing power market, especially in training scenarios [2][39] - Cloud vendors are pursuing supply chain autonomy and cost reduction through self-developed or collaboratively developed ASIC chips, with domestic chip manufacturers continuously catching up in performance [2][39] Group 4: Commercialization and ROI - AI cloud services encompass GPU leasing, MaaS/API services, and PaaS/SaaS services, with overseas vendors like Microsoft and Google experiencing rapid revenue growth in AI-related services [3][39] - Domestic vendors primarily derive AI cloud revenue from GPU leasing, with significant growth in the MaaS layer [3][39] - By 2030, leading cloud vendors are expected to achieve positive cash flow contributions from their AI businesses, with a return on invested capital (ROIC) of over 10% and an investment recovery period of approximately six to ten years [3][39]