黄金税收新政下的产业链变局

Core Viewpoint - The recent gold tax policy in China is causing a significant slowdown in the gold market, leading to a "half-stagnation" state as businesses adjust to the new regulations [2][3][7]. Tax Policy Impact - The new tax policy, effective from November 1, 2025, introduces differentiated tax management based on the purpose and nature of the buyer, increasing tax burdens for non-investment gold transactions [2][4]. - The tax burden for non-investment gold enterprises has increased, with input tax deductions dropping from 13% to 6%, raising gold procurement costs by approximately 60,000 to 70,000 yuan per kilogram [4][6]. Market Reactions - Many businesses in the gold industry are adopting a wait-and-see approach, anticipating clearer operational guidelines before making significant changes [3][7]. - Prices for gold bars and jewelry have risen across the board, with retail prices increasing by 60 to 70 yuan per gram following the announcement of the new tax policy [8][9]. Industry Restructuring - The new regulations are expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the gold industry, leading to a potential industry shakeout as smaller businesses struggle to adapt to increased costs [7][9]. - The tax reform aims to prevent fraudulent activities such as false invoicing and is likely to push the industry towards greater transparency and standardization [5][8]. Shift to Standardized Trading - The new tax policy is anticipated to drive gold trading towards formal exchanges, enhancing market transparency and reducing illegal trading activities [10][11]. - The policy maintains tax exemptions for on-exchange transactions, making them more attractive compared to off-exchange transactions, which will incur a 13% tax [10][12]. Long-term Outlook - While the immediate impact may increase costs for gold jewelry enterprises, the long-term effects could favor larger, compliant businesses with trading privileges, leading to a more concentrated market [9][12]. - The demand for investment-grade gold products is expected to rise as investors shift towards regulated channels, such as gold ETFs and standardized gold bars [10][12].