MRNA Q3 Deep Dive: Cost Controls and Pipeline Progress Amid Declining COVID Vaccine Demand

Core Insights - Moderna reported Q3 CY2025 revenue of $1.02 billion, a 45.4% year-on-year decline, but exceeded Wall Street expectations by 32% [1][6] - The company's full-year revenue guidance was lowered to $1.8 billion, 4.4% below analysts' estimates [1][6] - GAAP loss per share was $0.51, significantly better than the consensus estimate of -$2.38, representing a 78.6% beat [1][6] Financial Performance - Revenue: $1.02 billion vs analyst estimates of $769.6 million, reflecting a 45.4% decline year-on-year [6] - EPS (GAAP): -$0.51 vs analyst estimates of -$2.38, a 78.6% beat [6] - Adjusted EBITDA: -$208 million vs analyst estimates of -$911.9 million, indicating a 77.2% beat [6] - Operating Margin: -25.6%, down from -3.8% in the same quarter last year [6] - Market Capitalization: $9.50 billion [6] Management Commentary - Management attributed the outperformance to cost discipline, with a 34% reduction in combined costs compared to last year [3][5] - Future growth is expected to rely on expanding the commercial portfolio, particularly in respiratory and oncology segments [4] - The company aims to reach cash breakeven by 2028 through revenue growth and further cost reductions [4]