拜登预言成真，让特朗普干完四年，美国可能会衰落为“世界第二”

Core Points - The article discusses how the policies of the Trump administration have led the U.S. into a difficult situation, supporting the view that he is the "most unpopular president" in modern history [1] Trade Policies - In January 2025, Trump reintroduced economic policies centered around "building walls and protecting jobs," which included imposing tariffs to encourage manufacturing to return to the U.S. [3] - By April 2025, the Trump administration announced a global tariff plan, imposing a standard 10% tariff on unspecified countries, escalating to tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on various nations by July [3] - Tariffs on certain goods from China reached as high as 60%, with some facing punitive tariffs of 125%, leading to increased production costs for companies like Apple, which reported a 12% rise in supply chain costs [6] Economic Impact - Ordinary Americans experienced significant price increases, with a reported annual increase in living expenses of over $3,000 for a typical household, contributing to a CPI increase nearing 3% [8] - By October 2025, inflation remained high at 3.5%, and consumer confidence plummeted from 110 to 95, while retail sales fell by 2% [8] Government Shutdown - As of November 4, 2025, the U.S. government shutdown had lasted 35 days, affecting nearly half of IRS employees and leading to a decline in service efficiency [10] - A plane crash on the same day highlighted the consequences of inadequate regulatory oversight due to funding shortages, resulting in multiple fatalities and injuries [12] Fiscal Situation - The Congressional Budget Office reported a federal budget deficit of $1.8 trillion for FY 2025, with interest payments on public debt exceeding $1 trillion for the first time [13] - Despite generating $195 billion in additional revenue from tariffs, the overall fiscal situation remained strained due to high debt interest and social security expenditures [13] Labor Market - The labor market showed weak performance, with monthly job additions revised down to 71,000, and the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.8% [15] - Predictions indicated that the unemployment rate could reach 5.3% by the end of 2025, with many relying on gig economy jobs for survival [15] Capital Markets - The capital markets faced declines, with the S&P 500 dropping 11% and the Nasdaq falling 16% in Q1 2025, further exacerbated by a 3% drop following the announcement of new tariffs on electronics [17] Social and Diplomatic Issues - Trump's policies have led to social tensions and a retreat in diplomatic relations, with the "America First" approach causing the U.S. to withdraw from international agreements and alienate allies [20] - The spread of misinformation has further divided society, with a significant portion of the population believing the economy is improving despite clear indicators of decline [21]