前沿观察 | 澳大利亚能源蓝图：2035年可再生能源发电占比将超七成

Core Insights - Australia is undergoing a rapid energy transition driven by strong government policies, abundant solar and wind resources, and ambitious net-zero targets, with renewable energy expected to account for 73.3% of total electricity generation by 2035 [3][4] Group 1: Renewable Energy Projections - By 2035, renewable energy will dominate Australia's installed capacity, reaching 77.8%, compared to only 48% in 2024 [3][4] - In 2024, renewable energy will account for 31.6% of electricity generation, while fossil fuels will still represent 44% of installed capacity and 63.4% of generation [3][4] Group 2: Government Policies and Initiatives - Key policies supporting this transition include the Renewable Energy Target (RET), Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS), and Rewiring the Nation initiative, alongside state-level renewable energy goals [4] - Major initiatives like the Solar Sunshot plan, Hydrogen Headstart plan, and Critical Minerals Production Tax Credit are aimed at promoting investments in solar PV, hydrogen, and battery storage [5] Group 3: Challenges and Infrastructure Needs - Australia faces significant challenges in achieving its 2030 target of 82% renewable energy generation, including delays in grid access, approval bottlenecks, and community resistance to new transmission infrastructure [4] - The need for firming capacity and energy storage to integrate increasing rooftop solar generation has led to transmission congestion and curtailment risks in several regions [4][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The electricity sector is undergoing a major transformation, requiring a balance between retiring coal power, rapidly building renewable energy, and upgrading the grid [6] - Continuous policy coordination, accelerated infrastructure delivery, and increased investment in stability and transmission capacity are crucial for maintaining momentum in clean energy development through 2035 and beyond [6]