今日金价914克！不出意外的话，黄金或将迎来熟悉的行情

Core Viewpoint - The new gold tax policy implemented on November 1 has significantly disrupted the gold market, leading to increased prices and a shift in trading dynamics, with a notable rise in demand for gold ETFs as physical gold becomes scarce [1][3][12]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On the first day of the new tax policy, trading volume in the Shui Bei market surged by 300%, with gold bar prices skyrocketing from 948 yuan/gram to 1134 yuan/gram, and the buy-sell price spread widening from 27 yuan to over 100 yuan [3]. - Some merchants introduced a "tax-free quota" at 930 yuan/gram, which sold out quickly, while major jewelry brands raised their prices significantly, with Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry exceeding 1259 yuan/gram, marking a daily increase of 61 yuan [5]. - The tax burden has led to a clear division in the market, with essential buyers turning to rental markets and investors flocking to gold ETFs, which saw a growth of 32.4 billion yuan in the first quarter [5][12]. Group 2: Financial Channels and Investment Trends - As physical gold trading becomes more challenging, financial channels like gold ETFs are gaining traction, with an average net asset value growth of about 20% in the first quarter of 2025, and some ETFs achieving over 40% returns in the past year [7][8]. - The Tianhong Shanghai Gold ETF saw its assets increase more than tenfold in 2024, with a net asset growth of 1305% [7]. - The low management fee of 0.15% for the Huaxia Gold ETF has attracted significant institutional investment, with institutional holdings reaching 80% [7]. Group 3: Global Economic Context - The global demand for gold reached a record high of 1313 tons in the third quarter of 2025, with domestic demand for gold bars and coins increasing by 46% year-on-year in the first quarter [3]. - The World Gold Council noted that trade disputes, U.S. policy uncertainty, and recession fears have made gold a core asset for risk aversion, with historical data showing that gold prices typically rise following interest rate cuts [8]. - The divergence between domestic and international gold prices reflects deeper monetary dynamics, with the average price difference between Shanghai and London gold reaching 15 USD/ounce due to currency fluctuations and local supply-demand factors [10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The new tax policy has highlighted fundamental contradictions in the gold market, where supply constraints affect physical gold while monetary policies drive its financial instrument status [12]. - Current gold prices are at historical highs, with significant daily fluctuations, prompting discussions on whether the market is experiencing a bubble or entering a new cycle [14]. - The increasing scarcity of physical gold and the rapid growth of digital gold ETFs suggest a potential shift in investment logic, indicating a historical return of gold as a "ultimate currency" [12][14].