e.l.f Beauty Shares Plunge. Should Investors Buy the Stock on the Dip or Stay Away?

Core Viewpoint - The market's reaction to e.l.f. Beauty's management guidance appears overly harsh, despite a significant drop in stock value following the fiscal Q2 report [1][11]. Financial Performance - e.l.f. Beauty reported a 14% year-over-year sales increase to $344 million in fiscal Q2, missing analysts' consensus of $366 million [6]. - Adjusted EPS decreased from $0.77 to $0.68, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.57 [7]. - Adjusted EBITDA fell by 4% to $146.8 million [7]. - Revenue guidance for the fiscal year is projected to grow by 18% to 20%, reaching $1.55 billion to $1.57 billion, with adjusted EPS expected between $2.80 and $2.85, down from $3.39 the previous year [4]. Market Dynamics - The company expects Rhode to contribute $200 million in revenue this fiscal year, with a $300 million annual revenue run rate, indicating a potential 40% growth [5]. - Organic sales are projected to rise by 3% to 4%, although shipments are expected to be lower than consumption due to previous shelf space gains [5]. Cost and Margin Analysis - Tariffs have significantly impacted profits, with about 75% of products made in China facing an average tariff of 60%, leading to a 165 basis point decline in gross margins to 69% [8]. - Selling, general, and administrative expenses increased to 56% of revenues, up from 53% the previous year, as the company invests in employees and infrastructure [8]. Strategic Outlook - Management plans to increase marketing spending to 27%-29% of net sales in the second half of fiscal 2026, up from 23% in the first half [9]. - e.l.f. Beauty has been a strong growth player in the cosmetics sector, with opportunities for innovation and expansion, particularly with the Rhode brand [12][13]. - The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17.5 and a PEG ratio of 0.3, suggesting it may be undervalued [13].