最大经济体面临崩盘？大批资本逃离美国，美专家：更大危机在后面

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is facing significant challenges, including a sharp decline in foreign investment in U.S. Treasury bonds, rising inflation, and increasing national debt, leading to a potential economic downturn in 2025 [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, China sold $25.7 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, reducing its holdings to $730.7 billion, the lowest in 16 years [1]. - Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds decreased from $9 trillion to $8.8 trillion, indicating a significant capital withdrawal [3]. - The U.S. national debt surpassed $31 trillion in 2023, with interest payments reaching $1 trillion, equivalent to twice the defense budget [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation surged to 9.1% in June 2022, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates from near zero to 4.25%-4.5% by the end of 2022 [5]. - Despite a reduction in inflation to 3.1% in 2023, the high-interest rates have led to a decline in stock market value, with a loss of nearly $20 trillion in U.S. equities [5][10]. Group 3: Consumer Impact - The imposition of tariffs under the Trump administration has increased domestic consumer prices, costing American households over $5,000 annually [7]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. reached 25.1%, the highest since the Great Depression [7]. Group 4: Investment Trends - In 2024, foreign net inflows into the U.S. stock market fell below $100 billion, a 50% decrease from the previous year [8]. - By 2025, foreign capital outflows reached $15 billion, tightening market liquidity and making corporate financing more challenging [8]. Group 5: Structural Issues - The total federal debt exceeded $37.86 trillion in 2025, with interest payments consuming 17.1% of the budget, leading to cuts in essential services [12]. - The wealth gap in the U.S. has widened, with the top 0.1% of households holding 13.8% of total wealth, while the bottom 50% hold only 2.5% [12]. Group 6: Global Economic Shifts - As capital flows out of the U.S., China has reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings while increasing gold and euro assets, with gold reserves surpassing 2,000 tons [16]. - The share of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has declined from 60% to 58%, with predictions it may drop below 50% in five years [16].