Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-08 18:46Group 1: Market Impact - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility, with the Nasdaq index dropping 3.04%, marking its worst performance since early April [1][3] - A dramatic V-shaped reversal occurred on November 7, where the market initially opened lower but ended with slight gains for the Dow and S&P 500, driven by news of a potential compromise to end the government shutdown [3] - Despite a minor rebound, technology stocks faced heavy selling, with Nvidia dropping nearly 5% during the day and Microsoft experiencing its longest losing streak since November 2011 [5] Group 2: Economic Consequences - The ongoing government shutdown, now lasting 39 days, is projected to reduce the U.S. GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in Q4, leading to estimated economic losses of $7 billion to $14 billion depending on the duration of the shutdown [7] - The shutdown has disrupted the release of critical economic data, including the non-farm payroll report, creating a "data vacuum" that complicates market and policy decision-making [9][10] Group 3: Labor Market Conditions - Private sector reports indicate a struggling labor market, with over 153,000 layoffs announced in October, the highest for that month in over 20 years, primarily in the tech and warehousing sectors [13] - The ISM services employment index stands at 48.2% and manufacturing at 46%, indicating economic contraction, while job vacancy indicators have dropped to their lowest levels since February 2021 [13] Group 4: Government Negotiations - Negotiations between Senate Democrats and Republicans remain stalled, with Democrats seeking to extend healthcare subsidies while Republicans insist on reopening the government first [16]