俄钢遭全面封杀？德国牵头施压欧盟？最后谁才会得不偿失

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing sanctions against Russia due to the Ukraine conflict have now extended to steel, with Germany's Vice Chancellor calling for a complete ban on Russian steel, placing the EU in a precarious position between geopolitical pressures and economic realities [1][3]. Group 1: EU's Internal Conflicts - The call for a ban on Russian steel has caused significant discord within the EU, revealing that while there is a collective stance, individual member states have differing interests [3][5]. - Eastern European countries are particularly vulnerable, as many small and medium enterprises rely heavily on Russian steel, risking production halts and potential unemployment [3][5]. - Western European nations may face increased costs if they seek alternative suppliers from countries like India and Brazil, potentially raising prices by at least 30%, which could further exacerbate inflation [5][10]. Group 2: Germany's Strategic Moves - Germany's push for a ban appears to be a strategy to solidify its leadership role within the EU while also pressuring its domestic steel industry to reduce reliance on Russian imports [8][10]. - A special summit is scheduled for November 6, where German officials will discuss measures to mitigate the impact of the ban on the domestic steel sector, highlighting the importance of steel to Germany's manufacturing base [8][10]. - The contradiction in Germany's approach—calling for a ban while simultaneously seeking ways to cushion its domestic industry—illustrates the complex balancing act between political posturing and economic stability [10][12]. Group 3: Russia's Response and Market Dynamics - Russia has responded defiantly to the sanctions, asserting that it can overcome the challenges posed by Western restrictions and suggesting that the sanctions may ultimately harm the global economy [12][14]. - As a major steel exporter, Russia's products are difficult to replace in the short term, and a complete ban could lead to Russia redirecting its exports to emerging markets in Asia and Africa [14][15]. - The EU's search for alternative suppliers is likely to be a lengthy process, and a sudden ban could lead to further disruptions in supply chains, complicating the situation for European businesses [15][17]. Group 4: Broader Implications of Sanctions - The current situation highlights the challenges of using sanctions as a tool to undermine a significant global player, suggesting that such measures may not yield the intended results and could destabilize the global economy [17]. - The internal divisions within the EU regarding the sanctions may lead to some member states circumventing the ban, making it difficult for Germany's call for a complete embargo to be fully realized [17].