楼市大局已定！2026年的房价，已出现4个迹象

Group 1 - The core issue of the real estate market is the phenomenon of "mortgage inversion," where homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their properties are currently worth, leading to a trend of "selling loans" [1][3] - A significant increase in "mortgage inversion" cases has been observed, with a reported 3.7% of properties in major cities classified as negative assets, doubling from the previous year [3] - Banks are implementing measures to mitigate risks associated with mortgage inversion, such as extending repayment periods and temporarily halting principal repayments [3] Group 2 - The current market is characterized by the "deflation of bubbles," where the decline in property prices is seen as a correction of inflated values rather than a total market collapse [5][7] - Certain core areas in cities like Beijing and Shanghai have shown slight price increases, indicating that properties with intrinsic value based on location and amenities are less affected by the downturn [7] - Properties that were previously overvalued due to speculation are experiencing significant price drops, with some luxury properties losing over 40% of their value [7] Group 3 - Various government policies aimed at stabilizing the market have been enacted, including lowering down payment requirements and reducing mortgage interest rates, but the effectiveness of these measures is questioned [7][9] - A report indicates that the majority of household wealth is tied up in real estate, leading to a lack of confidence in future income and reluctance to take on long-term mortgages [9] Group 4 - The real estate market is expected to remain in a "bottoming" phase, with only structural stabilization anticipated in 2026, particularly in core urban areas [9][11] - Maintaining cash flow is emphasized as crucial for financial stability, with a growing trend of increased savings rates among residents indicating a shift towards prioritizing liquidity over property ownership [11] - The overarching message is that true security comes from financial resilience rather than property ownership, as the market continues to face challenges [11]