俄乌突发，大规模空袭！谈判进展有限，美政府继续“停摆”！分析人士：油价大概率震荡下行

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market experienced fluctuations this week, initially rising before declining due to various factors including geopolitical tensions and economic data [7][8] - WTI crude oil futures for December increased by 0.69% to $59.84 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures for January rose by 0.50% to $63.70 per barrel, despite a weekly decline of 1.87% and 1.65% respectively [7] - The market is currently facing concerns over oversupply, exacerbated by a significant increase in EIA inventory and a prolonged U.S. government shutdown impacting demand [8][10] Group 2: Geopolitical Events Impacting Oil Supply - Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, targeting energy and transportation infrastructure, which has implications for oil supply stability in the region [1] - This attack marks the ninth major assault on Ukraine's energy infrastructure since October, leading to emergency power outages and damage to facilities responsible for gas and heating supply [1] - Analysts suggest that geopolitical conflicts, particularly involving Russia, could significantly influence oil prices if they lead to supply disruptions [10] Group 3: Inventory and Demand Trends - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly to 421.2 million barrels, reflecting a 1.25% increase, indicating weak demand [8] - Seasonal reductions in refinery processing rates are contributing to lower oil consumption, with the current processing rate at 15.256 million barrels per day, remaining in a low range for the year [8] - In Singapore, fuel oil inventories surged by 1.754 million barrels, a 7.6% increase, driven by a significant rise in import volumes, suggesting a growing supply glut [9]