光大证券:华虹半导体3Q25涨价落地 量价齐升帮助毛利率持续修复 维持“买入”评级
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-09 00:11

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates that downstream demand is recovering, leading to a price increase cycle for Huahong Semiconductor (01347). However, accelerated capacity expansion is expected to increase depreciation pressure, prompting adjustments to the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of $635 million, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.2%, aligning with the company's guidance of $620-640 million [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 13.5%, exceeding the company's guidance of 10%-12% and the market expectation of 11.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.6 percentage points [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2025 was $25.73 million, slightly below the market expectation of $27.17 million [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Growth Drivers - The company anticipates continued demand growth in 2026, particularly in power management and storage chips, driven by AI demand [2] - In Q3 2025, revenue from analog and power management increased by 33% year-on-year, while embedded and standalone non-volatile memory revenues grew by 20% and 107% respectively [2] - The "Local for Local" strategy is expected to start contributing to revenue from Q4 2025, with early production of ST's 40nm MCU already underway [2] Group 3: Capacity and Production - The company reported a capacity utilization rate of 109.5% in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.2 percentage points, driven by recovering semiconductor demand [3] - The total production capacity for 8-inch wafers reached 468,000 pieces per month in Q3 2025, with expectations for accelerated capacity expansion at Fab9, potentially reaching 830,000 pieces per month by the end of 2026 [3] - The acquisition of Huahong Micro is progressing smoothly, with expectations to complete the transaction by mid-2026 [3] Group 4: Future Guidance - The company provided a revenue guidance of $650-660 million for Q4 2025, which represents a year-on-year increase of 21.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.1%, but is below the market expectation of $662 million [4] - The gross margin guidance for Q4 2025 is set at 12%-14%, which is higher than the market expectation of 11.3% [4] - The company expects revenue growth to remain robust in 2026 due to increased semiconductor demand and the "Local for Local" strategy, alongside anticipated capacity releases at Fab9 [4]