非农“没了”，下周的美国CPI也要“没了”，美联储12月还能“闭眼降息”吗？

Core Insights - The U.S. government is experiencing a prolonged shutdown, leading to a halt in the release of key economic data, which complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for the upcoming December meeting [2][3] - The Labor Statistics Bureau has postponed the release of the October CPI report, raising concerns that it may not be published at all, further complicating discussions on interest rate decisions [2][3] - The absence of official data may provide a rationale for policymakers concerned about inflation to maintain interest rates in December, despite market expectations leaning towards a rate cut [2][3] Data Vacuum and Decision-Making Challenges - The current situation poses significant challenges for the Federal Reserve, which relies on data for decision-making; the lack of recent employment and inflation data undermines the foundation for policy decisions [3] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, and the absence of official data may strengthen the position of those focused on inflation risks [3][4] Alternative Indicators - In the absence of official data, some private sector employment reports are helping to fill the gaps, but alternative inflation indicators are harder to obtain and less comprehensive [4] - The Cleveland Fed's "nowcast" model suggests that the October CPI year-on-year increase may be similar to September's lower-than-expected 3% [4] Impact of Government Shutdown - The timing of the government shutdown's resolution will be crucial for the Fed's December decision, as it will determine how quickly economic data can be updated [5][6] - Various scenarios have been proposed regarding the potential impact of data recovery on policy decisions, ranging from receiving outdated reports to having multiple recent employment reports available before the December meeting [6] Scenarios for Employment Reports - Scenario one involves receiving an outdated September employment report, which is unlikely to influence a rate cut decision [6] - Scenario two considers the release of both September and October reports, which could complicate the decision if the unemployment rate remains stable [6] - Scenario three anticipates the release of three complete employment reports, where the unemployment rate will significantly influence the Fed's decision on whether to maintain or cut rates [6]