惨！美国政府关门36天破纪录，80万雇员无奈跑外卖，美股要崩了？

Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government shutdown has reached 36 days, surpassing the previous record of 35 days set in 2018, indicating a prolonged political standoff [1] - The core issue of the shutdown revolves around healthcare subsidies related to the Affordable Care Act, with both parties entrenched in their positions, leading to a lack of progress in negotiations [3][4] - The shutdown has resulted in significant economic losses, with estimates suggesting a potential GDP growth reduction of 0.2 percentage points per month, translating to over $50 billion in economic damage if it continues until the end of November [10] Group 2: Effects on Employment and Welfare - Approximately 800,000 federal employees are affected, either on unpaid leave or working without pay, leading to increased reliance on charitable organizations for basic needs [7][9] - Food assistance programs for 42 million Americans have been disrupted, with a significant portion of beneficiaries facing delays in receiving aid, marking a historic first in the program's 60-year history [7][10] Group 3: Financial Market Repercussions - The shutdown has triggered liquidity concerns in global financial markets, with the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance exceeding $1 trillion, indicating a reduction in available cash flow in the market [12][14] - The SOFR rate has surged to 4.22%, reflecting increased borrowing costs among banks, while the usage of the Federal Reserve's emergency lending facilities has reached record levels, signaling a cash crunch in the banking sector [12][14] Group 4: Broader Economic Consequences - The shutdown has led to flight cancellations and disruptions in the transportation sector, with a warning that up to 20% of flights could be affected, impacting millions of travelers [9][10] - Local businesses, particularly in Washington D.C., have seen a significant drop in sales, with some reporting declines of 15% to 20%, and small business loan approvals have come to a halt, threatening their viability [10][12]