美股历史最强月份出师不利

Group 1 - The US stock market experienced increased volatility last week, with AI-related stocks undergoing a correction due to concerns over high valuations, leading to declines in all three major indices for the first time in four weeks [2] - The ongoing government shutdown has created a data vacuum, contributing to market worries about the economy, particularly with weak employment and consumer data [2][3] - The Challenger Job Cuts report indicated a significant increase in layoffs, with October's figures rising by 183% month-over-month to 153,074, the highest level for this period since 2003 [3] Group 2 - Consumer confidence is declining, as evidenced by the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 50.3, marking a near-historical low [3] - The ISM Services Index rose to 52.4, indicating a return to expansion in the services sector, while the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI increased slightly from 52.0 to 52.5, suggesting a modest improvement in manufacturing [3] - The market is anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December rising from 68% to 72% [5] Group 3 - The S&P 500 index is testing its 50-day moving average, which has not been closed below since April, indicating a critical technical support level [8] - Despite strong quarterly results from AI stock Palantir, the stock faced selling pressure post-earnings, raising questions about the sustainability of high valuations in the tech sector [8] - The prolonged government shutdown is impacting consumer confidence and contributing to signs of weakness in the labor market, with a decrease in the breadth of market participation [8]