GUOSHENG SECURITIES(SZ:002670) 智通财经网·2025-11-09 06:32Core Insights - The rise of silicon photonics technology is fundamentally restructuring the underlying logic and value chain of the entire industry, shifting the investment focus from backend "packaging" to frontend "chip design and wafer manufacturing" [1][2] - The investment paradigm based on silicon photonics will change, focusing on four key areas: silicon photonic chip design companies, silicon modulation chip FAB manufacturers, supporting chips/devices, and semiconductor equipment required for silicon photonics [1] Industry Transformation - Silicon photonics redefines the core competitiveness of optical communication by shifting from a packaging-dominated model to a fabless model, where the performance, cost, and yield of optical modules are highly dependent on the chip design and wafer manufacturing stages [2][6] - The technology offers advantages such as low power consumption, low latency, high bandwidth, and high integration, with predictions indicating that its market share in optical modules will increase from 30% in 2025 to 60% by 2030 [2] Market Dynamics - The shortage of EML chips, which rely on complex manufacturing processes and III-V compound semiconductor materials, creates a development window for silicon photonics as it serves as a mainstream alternative [3] - The overall health of the optical module industry remains strong, with leading companies like Coherent and Lumentum reporting better-than-expected financial results, indicating robust demand for optical components driven by AI data centers [4][6] Competitive Advantages - Silicon photonics establishes advantages in cost, performance, and production capacity, with the ability to leverage global CMOS wafer fabrication infrastructure for mass production and standardized packaging [5] - The strategic advantage of silicon photonics lies in its production capacity flexibility, allowing for dynamic adjustment based on market demand, enhancing the resilience of the entire supply chain [5] Investment Recommendations - The company continues to favor the computing sector, recommending investments in leading optical module firms such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, as well as other related companies in the optical device space [6][7] - Suggested companies span various segments, including optical communication, computing equipment, and liquid cooling solutions, indicating a broad investment interest in the computing and optical sectors [7][8]